- How The Grinch Stole the Rivalry
- 9-Line Prediction: BYU v. UMass
- 9-Line Prediction: BYU v. UNLV
- 9-Line Prediction: BYU v. Fresno St.
- 9-Line Prediction: BYU v. SJSU
- 9-Line Prediction: BYU v. ECU
- 9-Line Prediction: BYU v. Mississippi State
- 9-Line Prediction: BYU v. Boise State
- 9-Line Prediction: BYU at Utah State
- 9-Line Prediction: BYU v. Wisconsin
- How BYU’s offense & defense have stacked up since 2005
- 9-Line Prediction: BYU v. Utah
- 9-Line Prediction: BYU v. LSU
- 9-Line Prediction: BYU v. Portland State
- By the Numbers: 2017 Season Preview
Bowl Prep: Stacking Memphis up to BYU’s other 2014 opponents
- Updated: December 17, 2014
Even though Memphis’ defense is ranked higher, its offense and defense both currently rank as the third-toughest opponent for BYU. The Tigers fit in pretty well with BYU’s other 2014 opponents because most of the teams BYU has played also have a better defense than offense.
BYU Offensive Points Scored vs. Defensive S&P Rankings
BYU has faced teams in two clusters of defensive rankings this year, one block ranked between 18 and 39 and another between 82 and 97.
Memphis, at 28, fits well in the first block of teams and should present a much stiffer test than what BYU faced in Berkley the last weekend of November. Even though BYU’s best offensive games came against Texas and Virginia early in the season (before the loss of Taysom Hill), BYU’s 42 points against Cal was a solid accomplishment and more than what the averages would have predicted.
These numbers predict that the BYU offense should have an average day against an average Memphis defense, scoring approximately 28 points.
BYU Defensive Points Allowed vs. Offensive S&P Rankings
Lastly, let’s look at the BYU defense. The Memphis offense is ranked 56th and will still be the third most potent offense to face off against BYU this year. It’s not terribly comforting to see these poor rankings for offenses that have given BYU so much trouble this year.
The only elite offense BYU saw this year was Boise State’s, and the Broncos absolutely shredded the Cougars. Even Cal, who was hyped up by many as a great Pac-12 offense, is only ranked 40th.
BYU’s defense preformed best this year against Texas and Middle Tennessee, and to no one’s surprise, the performances against Boise, Utah State, Nevada, Virginia, and UNLV allowed more points than even a 56th-ranked defense should allow.
What is the state of the defense now? The Cal performance earned BYU an eighth win on the year, but giving up 35 points in a game is not how Bronco Mendenhall likes to play football.
From this perspective, on average, BYU should give up 32 points to an offense of Memphis’ caliber.
BYU prediction: Memphis 32, BYU 28; a close loss for the Cougars.
Conclusion
How much better is BYU’s defense than its average for the year? Memphis’ offense isn’t ranked that much higher than Texas or Middle Tennessee, who were both thoroughly shut down by the Cougars.
With the Memphis perspective predicting a tie and the BYU numbers forecasting a 32-28 Cougar loss, it would seem that the Vegas oddsmakers, who favor BYU, seem to think that BYU’s defense is playing better now than the sum of its 2014 games.
Holding the country’s 56th-ranked offense to less than 32 points certainly isn’t the most ambitious goal in the world, but that’s the task that awaits the Cougars on Monday.
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About Greg Welch
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December 17, 2014 at 12:14 pm
All the lines that I see have Memphis as a 1 – 11/2 point favorite