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Cougar Brain Trust: 2014 Season Review

Conclusions

Based on these predictions, we can draw a few conclusions and place these conclusions into one of four categories: Expected Positives, Expected Negatives, Unexpected Positives, and Unexpected Negatives. These conclusions don’t attempt to pinpoint the reasons for the statistical changes from 2013 to 2014, but simply to categorize the changes as expected or unexpected.

Expected Negatives

1. The BYU Defense would allow more games of 24+ points in 2014.

2. Jamaal Williams would rush for fewer yards in 2014.

Expected Positives

1. Jordan Leslie would play a big role in the offense.

2. Taysom Hill would improve in the passing game.

3. BYU would improve its touchdown scoring in the Red Zone.

4. The BYU Rush Defense would remain stout.

5. BYU Pass Efficiency rating would increase.

6. BYU’s average margin of victory would be around 11 points.

Unexpected Negatives

1. Jamaal Williams would rush for almost 700 fewer yards.

2. BYU would run 5-6 fewer offensive plays per game.

3. The BYU Defense would allow 3-4 more points per game in 2014.

4. BYU’s kick return average would decrease by almost 5 yards per return.

5. BYU’s Defense would allow opponents a 21% higher 4th Down conversion rate.

6. BYU’s Pass Efficiency Defense would increase by 8 points.

7. BYU would win only 8 games.

Unexpected Positives

1. Mitch Mathews would play a big role in the offense (most productive WR).

2. Taysom Hill would increase his completion percentage above 65%.

3. Taysom Hill would increase his passer rating by 23.5 points.

4. BYU’s offense would find the ability for big plays.

5. BYU’s Red Zone TD percentage would be 71% (up from 48% in 2013).

6. Scott Arellano’s punting ability.

7. BYU would not allow any defensive/special teams touchdowns.

8. BYU would have an offensive Pass Efficiency of 142.6.

9. BYU would score more than 36 points per game.

One final thing I learned: @tayshum, the man behind the questions, may have a future career in setting prop bets for Las Vegas. If he can even come close to repeating his performance on these season-long questions, he can make some sports book a lot of money.

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