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Stats Shock: Bronco as underdog wins more than Bronco gets upset

2005

BYU ranked 46
When ranked below opponent: 0-4
When ranked above opponent: 6-2

Upset Wins
None		 Expected Losses
Boston College (9)
TCU (20)
Notre Dame (14)
Utah (41)
Expected Wins
Eastern Illinois (FCS)
New Mexico (65)
Colorado State (80)
Air Force (70)
UNLV (109)
Wyoming (64)		 Upset Losses
SDSU (71)
Cal (52)

 

2006

BYU ranked 6
When ranked above opponent: 11-2

Upset Wins
None		 Losses
None
Wins
Tulsa (49)
Utah State (117)
TCU (7)
SDSU (106)
UNLV (107)
Air Force (68)
Colorado State (95)
Wyoming (56)
New Mexico (63)
Utah (42)
Oregon (41)		 Upset Losses
Arizona (66)
Boston College (20) 

 

2007

BYU ranked 13
When ranked above opponent: 11-2.

Upset Wins
None
 Losses
None
Wins
Arizona (43)
Air Force (44)
New Mexico (46)
UNLV (98)
Eastern Washington (FCS)
Colorado State (82)
TCU (45)
Wyoming (75)
Utah (30)
SDSU (108)
UCLA (31)		 Upset Losses
UCLA (31)
Tulsa (41) 

 

2008

BYU ranked 36
When ranked below opponent: 0-3
When ranked above opponent: 10-0

Upset Wins
None 		 Expected Losses
TCU (3)
Utah (10)
Arizona (19)
Expected Wins
Northern Iowa (FCS)
Washington (116)
UCLA (82)
Wyoming (106)
Utah State (104)
New Mexico (61)
UNLV (93)
Colorado State (71)
SDSU (113)
Air Force (57)
 Upset Losses
None

 

2009

BYU ranked 14
When ranked below opponent: 2-1
When ranked above opponent: 9-1

Upset Win
Oklahoma (5)
Oregon State (12)
 Losses
TCU (7)
Wins
Tulane (115)
Colorado State (72)
Utah State (88)
UNLV (65)
SDSU (101)
Wyoming (91)
New Mexico (111)
Air Force (15)
Utah (17)		 Upset Losses
Florida State (39) 

 

2010

BYU ranked 44
When ranked below opponent: 1-4
When ranked above opponent: 6-2

Upset Wins
San Diego State (34)		 Losses
Florida State (22)
Nevada (26)
TCU (4)
Utah (19)
Wins
Washington (56)
Wyoming (102)
UNLV (115)
Colorado State (109)
New Mexico (119)
UTEP (106)
 Upset Losses
Air Force (49)
Utah State (91) 

 

2011

BYU ranked 33
When ranked below opponent: 1-2
When ranked above opponent: 9-1

Upset Wins
Tulsa (22)		 Losses
Texas (27)
TCU (19)
Wins
Mississippi (99)
UCF (48)
Utah State (54)
SJSU (92)
Oregon State (86)
Idaho State (FCS)
Idaho (113)
New Mexico State (107)
Hawaii (84)		 Upset Losses
Utah (53) 

 

2012

BYU ranked 12
When ranked below opponent: 1-1
When ranked above opponent: 6-4

Upset Wins
Utah State (8)		 Losses
Notre Dame (7)
Wins
Washington State (102)
Hawaii (120)
Georgia Tech (29)
Idaho (119)
NMSU (122)
San Diego State (26)		 Upset Losses
Utah (78)
Boise State (13)
Oregon State (22)
SJSU (26) 

 

2013

BYU ranked 27
When ranked below opponent: 1-2
When ranked above opponent: 7-3

Upset Wins
Utah State (26)		 Losses
Wisconsin (9)
Washington (23)
Wins
Texas (48)
Middle Tennessee (88)
Georgia Tech (35)
Houston (52)
Boise State (38)
Idaho State (FCS)
Nevada (79)		 Upset Losses
Virginia (76)
Utah (39)
Notre Dame (34) 

 

Part 2: Dean’s List: Comparing Bronco’s upset record to other long-time tenured coaches

Pages: 1 2

4 Comments

  1. Dr. Nick

    January 8, 2014 at 3:48 pm

    Great stuff – I would be really interested to compare Bronco numbers with other coaches like Whittingham at Utah or Chris Petersen at Boise State. My guess is that Bronco is generally less likely to be upset or pull an upset than those coaches. He is very consistent.

  2. Dan Uhl

    January 10, 2014 at 11:02 am

    Brett, this is really great analysis! Thanks! I support Coach Mendenhall. In saying that, I acknowledge that he is not perfect. But, in my book, he is a keeper. This analysis shows that he is comparable to many of his successful peers. What it does not take into account (and I do not know how it could be) is the extra things that he has to concern himself with, e.g. the Honor Code, academics, missions, etc. In my opinion, Coach Mendenhall is the right man for the job right now.