Tag Archives: jake heaps

by | October 27, 2011 · 3:38 pm

The question: Can Riley Nelson beat the TCU defense?

As the Cougars head into the biggest remaining game on the schedule, and play once again in the house that Jerry built, I believe there is only one pertinent question: Can Riley Nelson keep the offense moving against a historically awesome TCU defense.

By most measures TCU is not as good defensively as they have been over the past couple of seasons. From 2008-2010, TCU only allowed more than 30 points in two games: a 35-10 loss to Oklahoma in 2008, and a 40-35 victory over SDSU last season. This has been one of the best defenses in the country, and has usually been impressive even when losing (like the 2010 Fiesta Bowl against Boise State).

But this is not that team. They have given up 50 points to Baylor and 40 points to SMU.* I know it’s all projecting, but I don’t think those 2009 and 2010 teams give up a combined 90 points to the Bears and Mustangs.

* SMU and Baylor don’t have a lot of cache, but those loses aren’t as bad as you might think. According to advanced metrics, both teams are top-30. But the point still stands: the Horned Frogs defense is good, but not as good.

Nelson hasn’t been tested by an above-average defense. According to Football Outsiders,  the best defense Nelson has played against this season is Oregon State, which is ranked No. 50 on in their defensive rankings. Utah State (76) and San Jose State (80) are not good defenses, and Idaho State is a bel0w-average FCS team.

In the pro-Jake Heaps crowd, their best argument is this: Nelson has run up yards against lousy defenses, while Heaps put up pedestrian numbers against very good defenses, like UT (22), Utah (30) and UCF (38).

It’s a legitimate point. Nelson’s speed and mobility has caused fits for opposing defenses, but the speed of TCU will be like nothing the Cougars have seen since Nelson took over the offense.  

I don’t think Nelson needs a lot of rushing yards for BYU to win; Gary Patterson and his staff will design a defense to keep him contained. Nelson needs to be able to scramble to pass, and be accurate on his intermediate routes, and hit a pass or two beyond 20 yards to keep the safeties from cheating on his shorter throws or staying too close on run support.

If the Cougars can get close to 450 yards total offense, I think they win, because I don’t believe the defense will put up another clunker like they did against Utah. But if Nelson sputters, if he turns the ball over 2-3 times, the hill will be too high.

But I think Nelson keeps it together, makes plays, and gets the Cougars offense moving. At least enough to bring home a victory.

Prediction: 33-30 (OT), BYU

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by | October 26, 2011 · 7:04 am

Podcast 41: TCU Preview

In Episode 41, Adam and co-host Matt dive into the conference expansion stuff, and Matt reveals why he is staying away from Twitter. They play a game called answering machine and likely tick off Jake Heaps and Gary Patterson. They preview the game against TCU (send angry emails and tweets to Matt). They also briefly discuss the basketball team. All this and more is available right here or on iTunes.

 

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by | October 20, 2011 · 7:33 am

Podcast 40: Jay Drew, Mid-Season Report Cards

In Episode 40, Adam is joined by Salt Lake Tribune beat writer Jay Drew to talk about conference expansion, the current state of Cougar football, and whether Brandon Davies owes any of us an explanation. Matt then makes a triumphant return to the podcast to help Adam hand out mid-term report cards and to answer your questions from the TweetBag. Nonsense includes the Carson Palmer trade and the continuing debate about America’s best burger. As always, listen here or download on iTunes.

 

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by | October 14, 2011 · 9:51 am

5 Questions: BYU @ Oregon State

By Adam
adam@loyalcougars.com
@ajmangum

 1. How tough an environment is Reser Stadium in Corvallis? Will the crowd be a major factor?
Reser stadium seats less than 46,000, but if you talk with Oregon fans, it feels like a lot more during the Civil War games in Corvallis against the Ducks. According the Bleacher Reports top 50 college football stadiums, Reser did not make the cut (LaVell Edwards Stadium was No. 39). Of course, War Memorial Stadium at Wyoming was ranked, so not sure you can trust that. Remind me to tell you the story sometime of when I was almost killed there.

Imagine if BYU was 1-4 and had lost to an FCS opponent at home to start the season. How excited would the Cougar crowd be about a borderline top-50 team coming into town? Probably not very. I think Beaver fans are beaten down, and one win against a lousy Arizona team probably hasn’t brought them back to full power. The Cougars have a great opportunity to take the crowd out of the game early.

2. Do the Oregon State offensive strengths match-up too well with the BYU weaknesses?
I’ve read several previews that wonder if the Oregon State passing game (ranked 30th in the country in yards per game) is a bad match-up for a BYU secondary that has been vulnerable .

It’s a good question, but I don’t think the Beaver passing game is that good. Led by freshman Sean Mannion, they have only one 300+ yard game this season, and that was in a losing effort against Arizona State when they chucked the ball 66 times. I think if OSU throws the ball 60+ times against BYU, that would be a terrific sign.

Yes the passing game is their strength, and expect a decent day for them in that department, but call me skeptical of a unit that put up 230 yards against Sacramento State and is averaging just 6.1 YPA.

3. Does Riley Nelson continue his successful run? Or does Jake Heaps re-emerge?
Don and I talked a lot about this on the podcast; Nelson became the QB at the optimal time during a weak portion of the BYU schedule. Heaps played against likely 3 of the best 4 opponents the Cougars will face all year, and now Nelson gets his shot in cupcake alley.

And while that context is important, the stats so overwhelmingly favor Nelson that I’m not sure why anyone would be asking for Heaps’ return. Heaps has been almost as turnover prone, less accurate, and less efficient. With usually tons of time in the pocket, he can’t make the right decision.

Of course, if Nelson puts up a 5-for-12, 67 yards passing, 2 turnover first half, I think Bronco Mendenhall and Brandon Doman will be tempted to turn back to the former prospect. Personally, I would give James Lark a shot, but I believe if Nelson stumbles, Heaps will get the opportunity to prove his detractors wrong.

4. Is Michael Alisa for real?
Alisa was an afterthought coming out of Timpview High in 2008, a two-star filler, a special teams player.

That perception, at least for me, lasted until last week. With seasoned RBs in Josh Quezada, JJ DiLuigi and Bryan Kariya, who cared about Alisa? He entered the San Jose State game with 3 carries for 2 yards.

Now he is the RB with the highest YPC number, and he was great against the Spartans. He hit the holes violently, something that Cougar backs have failed to do this season, with the possible exception of Kariya in the 4th quarter against Utah State.

I have no idea if Alisa is for real or not, or if we just saw his career game. But I hope he gets 12-15 touches against the Beavers so we can find out if he’s really the remedy to BYU’s anemic rushing attack.

5. Can the Cougars put together 4 solid quarters? Please?
BYU has been disjointed this season, especially on offense. And the defense has also had major lapses that have cost the Cougars. Can they put together a complete game and easily win a game they should, on paper, easily win?

Unfortunately I don’t think the Cougars destroy the Beavers like they’re capable of doing. Nelson will lead the offense to 400+ yards again, but will make some major mistakes. And the defense will be solid, but give up a couple big plays. Still, the Cougars will be one win away from bowl eligibility come Saturday night.

Prediction: 24-20, BYU.

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by | October 13, 2011 · 6:01 am

Podcast 39: Conferences, QBs and Oregon State

Adam is joined by guest brother Don to discuss the ever-changing conference picture, the continuing QB controversy, and they preview the Oregon State game (without actually making predictions). They also opine on Riley Nelson’s hair and Brandon Doman’s skills as on offensive coordinator. All of this and much more available to listen here or to download on iTunes.

 

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by | October 10, 2011 · 8:36 pm

The key word: Efficiency

By Adam
adam@loyalcougars.com
@ajmangum

There were a lot of calls for Riley Nelson’s well coifed head on Saturday by fans on Twitter after his third turnover. He made a couple of poor decisions, and the one pass when he was about to get sacked looked like a Pee Wee league punt.

Turnovers are bad, but the Cougars have suffered through something much worse this season: an inefficient offense. When Jake Heaps was running the show, the Cougars turned the ball over a lot and also couldn’t sustain drives or score points.

Nelson, in 5+ quarters, has run an efficient offense. In an efficient passing offense, 1-2 turnovers is likely part of the equation on most days. Many very successful BYU QBs have averaged more than one INT per game. It’s just part of the program.

And the Cougars have been a ton more efficient with Riley at the helm. Though the offense stalled somewhat in the second half, the end results were a season-high 29 points and the second-highest total yards (behind last week’s Nelson-driven performance against Utah State).

Don’t misunderstand this: Nelson made a lot of mistakes, and if BYU is going to beat the remaining good teams on their schedule (TCU, maybe Hawaii), Nelson will need to play better.

The biggest caveat with Nelson’s immergence is this: He may not actually play against a top-30 team, and this could elevate his statistics and give the fans and (more importantly) the coaches a false sense of security regarding his abilities and potential going forward. Maybe like Heaps’ performance did in the second half of the 2010 season.

The stats are overwhelming in Nelson’s favor, even when factoring in the turnovers. Nelson is averaging almost 9 yards per pass attempt, while Heaps is averaging an attrocious 5.2 YPA. And as much as everyone was up in arms over Nelson’s turnovers, Heaps has been turnover prone as well. And with an inefficient offense, turnovers lead to short fields for the opposition. Two of the Nelson turnovers were inside the Spartan 5-yard line, which is bad, but not as bad as turning the ball over in your own territory.

I am not defending the poor plays Nelson made, and I’m not proclaiming him the second coming of Brandon Doman (though the comparison is interesting). But if you’re asking for Heaps to replace Nelson, the numbers don’t support that at all.

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by | October 6, 2011 · 3:52 pm

5 Questions: SJSU @ BYU

By Adam
adam@loyalcougars.com
@ajmangum

Did you know that San Jose State leads the all-time series 9-5? As usual, that nugget is courtesy of CougarStats.com. Of course, they’ve only met once since I was born, and that was a 1998 shoot-out in Provo. A ton has changed since then for both programs. So, as usual, I’ve got some questions and answers about the big game.

1. Just how badly will BYU beat SJSU?
I know that a lukewarm 3-2 start and Big 12 expansion talk have Cougar fans at DEFCON 1, but this team isn’t horrible, and SJSU is. I know the sportswriter cliché is “Look out, the Spartans have won two in a row!”, but they beat two other bad teams in Colorado State and New Mexico State.

Football Outsiders has SJSU ranked at No. 87 and BYU at No. 55. That’s like the difference between LSU and TCU, so let’s not oversell the Spartans. Anything can happen, but the Cougars are likely to cruise in this one by several TDs.

2. Who will start at QB? Will both Heaps and Nelson play?
The BYU coaching staff is silent on this issue, but I would be shocked if Riley Nelson doesn’t get the start and most (if not all) of the snaps. He proved it on the field. And as Greg Wrubell said on this week’s podcast, this is a results business, and Heaps has stunk in 2011.

3. Is the BYU defense good or not?
This unit can look very good and then very bad. After giving up a ton of yards to Utah State in the first three quarters, the Cougar D slammed the door on the last two Aggie drives. They have also looked dominant in stretches against Ole Miss, Texas and UCF, while looking terrible against Utah and in stretches against Texas and UCF.

I think the answer is that the BYU defense is good, but has some weaknesses against mobile QBs and big RBs. They will look really good against the Spartans.

4. Will the BYU rushing game find it’s groove against the Spartans?
Coming into the season, I thought the BYU rushing game would be very good, better than last year. OC Brandon Doman talked about a play-action based passing scheme, and I believed that three experienced and talented RBs would help open up the BYU pass offense.

SJSU is 95th in the country against the run, and their defense is 87th overall. This could be what the doctor ordered to get JJ DiLuigi, Quezada and Kariya going. But let’s not sugar coat this; the team is only averaging 3.1 YPC, and Quezada is under 3.

5. Will anyone still be awake when this game ends?
As someone who lives in the Central Time Zone, I’m not thrilled about the 9:15 CDT start. If it’s 41-10 in the middle of the third quarter, I make no promises about staying awake. I can guarantee my wife will be out before halftime.

And I think this one is a snoozer. And boy does my blood pressure need a snoozer in BYU’s favor.

Prediction: 41-17, BYU.

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by | October 5, 2011 · 8:51 pm

Podcast 38: QB controversy with Greg Wrubell; SJSU preview

Adam is joined by Greg Wrubell of KSL to discuss the performance of Riley Nelson against Utah State and the rebirth of the Nelson-Heaps QB debate. Greg also weighs in on whether Bronco is handling the situation correctly in the media. Matt then jumps on the show to preview the game against San Jose State, complete with a game of Over/Under and their ever-so-bold predictions. They also reach deep into the TweetBag. Nonsense, analysis, and a discussion of Riley Nelson’s hair. You can’t ask for more. Available here and on iTunes.

 

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by | September 30, 2011 · 10:55 pm

Podcast 37: Riley Nelson saves the day for Cougars

No one has been more critical of Riley Nelson than Adam and Matt (especially Matt), but the boys eat some crow and give Riley his props. They discuss the big plays in the 4th quarter, whether Jake Heaps is done as a QB at BYU, and give praise to the defense for some impressive play late after giving up big plays early. This and much more on the ‘Riley Nelson Lovefest’ edition of the podcast, as always available here and on iTunes.

 

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by | September 29, 2011 · 3:49 pm

5 Questions: USU @ BYU

By Adam
adam@loyalcougars.com
@ajmangum (Twitter)

Yesterday I covered whether USU-BYU is actually a rivlary. I say yes, many of you will say no. Regardless, this game is much more important than in years past, mainly because the Cougars need a win to keep momentum going and build a team that can beat TCU and Hawaii later in the season.

So here are five questions that should be answered by Saturday morning.

1. Are the Aggies better than their No. 103 Sagarin ranking?
The computers don’t like Utah State. With a 1-2 record, and a loss against No. 110 Colorado State, why would they? Yes, they played Auburn tough, but it’s fair to question whether Auburn, which despite a 3-1 record but has played poorly by their recent lofty standards, is even that good. (Auburn is ranked No. 33 by Sagarin.)

So are the Aggies any good? Likely no, but maybe yes. The offense put up 448 yards against Auburn on the road. The passing offense has been efficient, and the running game has been dangerous.

But the defense has looked vulnerable, with two iffy games sandwiched around a game against Weber State.

So what’s my verdict? I think the 103 ranking by Sagarin is too low for a team with as good as an offense as Utah State has, but I don’t think this is a top 75 team either.

2. Is, as coach Brandon Doman said, the offense really just inches away?
Honestly? I think that’s coach speak. On this week’s podcast, Matt and I talked a lot about the offense, and we both saw improvements last week against UCF. But are we close to a breakout game? Will the Cougars eclipse 400 yards in total offense for the first time this season?

If I set the over/under at 400 yards, I’m likely taking the under. I think Heaps has his best game, but I think that’s mainly because this will be the least talented defense* he has played against this season.

* I realize Ole Miss has not proven to be a particularly good defense, ranked 86th in the country in that department. So maybe I’m overstating things.

But I don’t expect some fantastic offensive breakout game. I hope for it, but I haven’t seen the evidence that they’re ‘inches away’ from something special, or even better than mediocre.

3. Is Jake Heaps actually on the hot seat?
I certainly hope not. I think among many fans he might be, but fans are fickle, and the back-up QB is usually the most popular player among fans of a struggling offense (just ask Kyle Orton).

I have been very critical of Heaps, and I worry about his maturation and progression. I would not be shocked if he ends up in the pile of highly recruited collegiate QBs who never reach their potential.

But it’s too early to give up on a kid this talented. I hope the coaching staff does not pull a Crowton and start yanking him around and destroy any hope that he might become something great, because I think Heaps gives the Cougars the best chance to win now and in the future.*

* Can we please stop with the Tanner Mangum nonsense? The dude is still in high school! Unless they changed the rules, he’s ineligible this season. Oh, and he’ll be a freshman next year, and freshman are usually bad. Oh, and he might go on a mission. So please stop.

4. Will BYU’s potential entrance into the Big 12 completely overshadow this game?
I have been extremely skeptical about the rumors of BYU joining the Big 12. When and if it happens , I will spill the beans as to why. I’ve found most of the speculating to be ridiculous, and I’m happy for gameday so this subject can dissolve into the background for at least a couple hours.

But I think there’s enough smoke around that there might be a fire. Our own Brett Hein has reported on The Upset Blog that BYU has a Big 12 offer in hand. If that truly is the case, then this game could be overshadowed by it, especially if more leaks out before game time.

5. If BYU loses this game, should I jab a pencil into my arm, or just burn my vintage Robbie Bosco jersey?
I would recommend no drastic reactions to a BYU loss this week.

First off, I think the Cougars win convincingly, so we’ll likely not reach that point.

But if the unthinkable does happen, and the Cougars drop one to the Aggies in Provo, I think it’s growing pains. I’m starting to believe that the BYU offense is not as talented and has less potential than I assumed at the beginning of the year. I believe they will get better as the season progresses, but the lack of a truly dangerous running back, inconsistent offensive line play, and a maturing (to be generous) QB may mean this will not be a great year for BYU football.

But regardless of the true potential of the Cougar offense, they should handle the Aggies on the home turf.

Prediction: 21-10, BYU.

 

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