Tag Archives: byu cougars

by | December 28, 2011 · 7:11 am

St. Mary’s Preview

By Adam
@ajmangum

Sports weeks like this are few and far between. BYU starts its first (of many?) seasons as a basketball team in the WCC, and what better way to start that affiliation than with a big game on the road against St. Mary’s, one of the Big Three this season in WCC basketball (BYU and Gonzaga being the others). And of course, a bowl game and a chance for 10 wins and a top 25 ranking for the football team.

But this post is really about the basketball team and a big game against St. Mary’s. Though this doesn’t compare to last season’s thrilling match-ups against San Diego State (both teams being ranked in the top 10), there is a lot of appeal for this one. Though neither the Cougars or the Gaels* are ranked, I think there’s a chance both are top 25 teams in a few weeks and both could be dangerous NCAA Tournament teams.

* Check out Wikipedia for a definition of the term Gaels. Still getting used to these mascots in the WCC. Yeah, Gonzaga is typical and boring with Bulldogs, but you have the Gaels, the Dons, the Waves, the Toreros, and the Pilots. Awesome.

I think the WCC is going to be very interesting at the top, with Gonzaga and St. Mary’s as formidable obstacles to the Cougars winning the WCC title in their first season. But who’s the best team so far? Depends on who you ask. With about a dozen games in the book for each school, the computers seem to be divided on who’s best. Pomeroy, Sagarin and RPI are not really that close to each other on these three (see below). I also included a non-scientific average of the three rankings.

Pomeroy Sagarin RPI Average
BYU 20 28 62 37
St. Mary’s 27 18 42 29
Gonzaga 29 41 11 27

What does this tell us? That until these three teams play each other, pick a computer ranking to tell which one is better and I’ll pick another. Pick a marquee win or a close loss, and I’ll pick another.

I think the order is BYU, St. Mary’s and then Gonzaga. But Mark Few is a fantastic coach, and there’s no reason the Bulldogs couldn’t become the best team in the conference when all is said and done.

Getting back to the game against St. Mary’s, the top two scorers for the Gaels are 6-6 senior forward Rob Jones (14.0) and 6-4 Australian junior point guard Matthew Dellavedova (13.9), who also leads the team in assists (6.4). The match-up between the experienced Dellavedova (in his third year running the team) and the uber-talented Matt Carlino could be the most fun part of watching this game.

Jones leads the team in rebounding (10.6), and helps anchor a very efficient offense that thrives on crisp passing and execution. They are not particularly big, and Brandon Davies should be a match-up problem. Expect to see several different Gaels guard him throughout the game, with a mix of smaller defenders who will try to annoy him when he touches the ball.

Neither of these teams play fast, and both teams do a very good job of clamping down on defense. But the Cougars have struggled defensively in the first half in each of their last two games against D-1 foes. If they do that again St. Mary’s, coming back will not be as easy.

Despite the smallish size, the Gaels are a terrific defensive rebounding team, and have guards who can rebound well. They do not turn the ball over often, so the Cougars will need to be very efficient on offense. They’re not a great 3-point shooting team (just 34.0%), but they chuck it up a lot (11th most in the country), so the perimeter defense will be key.

On a recent podcast, I predicted that BYU would lose this game. And while I think it will be close, upon closer examination, the Cougars are a tough match-up for St. Mary’s. BYU is more athletic at several key positions, and Davies is a problem the Gaels don’t have a good answer for. If the junior forward can stay out of foul trouble (a big if, I know), he should dominate.

But even if Davies struggles, Noah Hatsock and Jones cancel out, as should Carlino and Dellavedova. If Brock Zylstra and others can outplay their St. Mary’s counterparts, the Cougars should be able to steal their first conference game in the WCC.

Prediction: BYU 74, St. Mary’s 71

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by | December 6, 2011 · 1:52 pm

Heaps Leaves

by Matt Mangum

matt@loyalcougars.com or on twitter @matt_mangum

It became official yesterday that Jake Heaps was leaving BYU. It has been interesting to follow some of the conversation on twitter regarding Heaps’ big move. I’ve recently discussed the idea of Jake Heaps transferring here on the blog. In that post I wrote that I felt it would be a mistake for Heaps to transfer. I still feel that way. I think it’s unfortunate that this has worked out this way, but at the end of the day Heaps has to do what he thinks is best for him. Having already discussed what I think a transfer means for him, I am now more interested in what his decision means for BYU football.

The answer is: not much.

Aside from the Nelson versus Heaps debate, the loss of Heaps changes very little in the short term. Most would agree that Nelson was the likely starter going into the 2012 season. He would have lasted until he got hurt or faltered. At which point Heaps may have had a chance to finish off the schedule. Many people feel that Heaps would have done better with the schedule BYU had in the second half of this season than he did with the first few games. But that belief is anchored in the quality of the opponent, not in the development curve of Heaps. Heaps has not progressed as expected. Does that mean he will not in the future? No. He just isn’t there yet. Neither of them were ready in 2010. Heaps was not ready when 2011 began. Nelson didn’t blow him out of the water, Heaps simply did not perform.Was it a scheme problem? Partially. But a better scheme doesn’t make throws more accurate, make decisions in the pocket or stay focused after taking a hit. Heaps just wasn’t ready in 2011. I don’t see the gap between them being big enough in 2011 or 2012 to make a huge difference. If the gap had been larger, there would never have been a question about who to start.

In the long term, Heaps’ transfer will have negligible impact on recruiting. For the most part BYU recruits from the same places and from the same pool of players repeatedly. Most of these players will know the story and will see it for what it is. It was a singular bad situation. This will be ancient history in 18 months or less. BYU also relies heavily on finding students who love the program and want to play specifically at BYU. Those players will not be dissuaded by Jake Heaps’ decision. Ben Olson didn’t stop Jake Heaps from coming to BYU and Jake Heaps won’t stop Tanner Mangum from coming to BYU.

I don’t wish anything bad on Jake Heaps. I don’t held this decision against  him. For me, he simply becomes a quarterback at another school. It’s not at all personal for me as a fan nor should it be. Early last year I was among those that felt his talents were being squandered under the two quarterback system. I wanted Anae to give him the keys. He got the keys and made some incremental progress. This season I was disappointed with his lack of continued growth. I was continually mocked on the Rise and Shout podcast for being a Riley Nelson hater. But the fact of the matter is that when Nelson came in, the offense immediately began to get in the endzone more frequently. When that happens, the choice is clear. The team has to do what is in their best interest to win football games and Jake Heaps has to do what he feels is in his best interest to get to the next level or achieve his other goals. That’s what happened here. That’s life.

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by | December 4, 2011 · 8:13 pm

BYU will face Tulsa

by Matt Mangum

matt@loyalcougars.com or on twitter @matt_mangum

If we had all just read Rivals.com in August, we would have known that this was coming. BYU and Tulsa are officially going to square off in the Armed Forces Bowl.

BYU and Tulsa have played 7 times. BYU holds a 6-1 advantage in those matchups. Many of you will best remember the 2007 matchup. Max Hall threw for 537 yards. It was a 55-47 shootout that ended with a gut punch in the final minute when Andrew George fumbled the football. (George totally redeemed himself later) I’m not sure I can even talk about it without getting upset. So here we are in 2011 preparing to face Tulsa in the Armed Forces Bowl in Dallas, Texas. This season Tulsa’s losses came against the following schools: Oklahoma, Oklahoma State (who should be playing for a title), Boise State and Houston. Those are all decent teams and Tulsa doesn’t have much to be ashamed of there. In 2011 BYU lost to Texas, Utah and TCU. Neither of the team’s complete schedules shed much light on the matchup. There is one common opponent, Central Florida, and both teams beat the Golden Knights by a score of 24-17.

Tulsa boasts a quarterback, G.J. Kinne who has thrown for over 2800 yards and 25 TDs. Jake Heaps and Riley Nelson’s combined statistics are over 2800 yards and 25 TDs. Kinne threw for over 300 yards in five different games. As individuals, Nelson and Heaps only topped 300 yards a couple of times. That is an eery stat to me when I think about this game in the context if the 2007 matchup. The good news is that these are almost entirely different teams and the comparison is purely historical. The bad news is that Tulsa is not UTEP. This is a serious matchup against a team that can score points and move the football. This is a good chance for BYU to measure how far they have actually come this season. It should be exciting for fans and players. There are going to be alot of decisions to be made this offseason and this game may provide a good measuring stick to make quality decisions. If it does not go well, BYU heads into an offseason of uncertainty. If it does go well, it provides some serious framework for this offseason and next year.

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by | · 5:33 am

Should I Stay or Should I Go?

By Matt Mangum

matt@loyalcougars.com or on twitter @matt_mangum

A couple of months ago I read an article detailing why Jake Heaps should consider transferring to the University of Utah. Since that time, there has been a lot of other speculation about what Jake Heaps may decide to do with his football career following this season. I don’t buy for a minute that he is not seriously weighing out his options. I hope that nobody reading  this article beleives that either. However, I think he would be making a mistake if he left.

Where is he going to go? Jake’s time at BYU has been stormy. In two years he has worked with two very different OCs and inside of two different offensive systems. It was pretty clear that Robert Anae had little to no confidence in Jake Heaps last year. Towards the end of the season he opened things up a little bit. However, I left that season with the feeling that Anae did not feel comfortable giving Heaps the keys to the car. The entire situatuation in 2010 was a debacle. In my opionion it was as much of a coaching failure as anything. The team started the season without a single quarterback prepared to play. So after Anae got fired and Doman was promoted to OC, Doman put together a new offensive system that should have been a place for Heaps to thrive. There were two problems with this: Heaps was not ready for primetime at the beginning of 2011 and neither was Doman’s offense. This combination was a little bit of a nightmare to watch.

So where am I going with this? Jake Heaps and the staff never seemed to dedicate any time to simply developing Jake Heaps as a quarterback. He has some great raw skills. If this is going to work, he needs time to bring those skills up to the FBS level. At BYU he has an OC with confidence in Heaps’ future. He has already spent a year working with the new system. If he transfers to another school (wherever it may be), he’ll have to sit out a year anyways and he’ll have to learn a third offensive system. He would also not learn some of the intangible lessons that he will learn if he stays. If he does stay, the right move is to redshirt him next year. This would allow him time to bring his skills up to the FBS level and time to mature as a football player and leader. I believe that this combination gives him the greatest chances of success with his remaining years of eligibility. Moving to a new system will set his career back two years with only two years of eligibility and will not provide the same growth opportunity as a leader. Staying and redshirting is likely the most difficult thing for him to do. But in the end, doing the difficult thing will likely produce the best results.

So what about Bronco? Is he going to leave for UCLA or some other crazy situation when 2011 ends? I think Bronco may get some attention from schools and his name will be mentioned in some of these conversations. The main reasons that I believe Bronco would consider leaving are: BCS access and the ability to create a new coaching staff from scratch. I believe that many of Bronco’s comments about conference realignment indicate that he would love to be with a program that had access to the BCS system. I think that is more important to him than TV contracts. He’s a coach, he wants to win championships. For this same reason, I think he would also prefer to coach a team in a conference. I am absolutely putting words into his mouth here. But, if I were in his shoes, that’s how I would feel. He also had to wait for several years before he was able to get a coaching staff together that espoused his philosophies. Were he to start at a new program, he could likely put together a similar staff of his own right away.

I think the chances of Bronco leaving are higher than the chances of Jake transferring. If Bronco gets some attention, it would be from a program with real clout. I don’t think those same types of programs are going to be coming for Heaps. I think that Heaps transferring would be a mistake, but I am not sure that I could say the same thing about Mendenhall leaving. He could be offered a job at a prestigious program for a higher paycheck. From a professional standpoint, it would be a good move for him. Heaps on the other hand is a college sophomore who wants to play in the NFL. Transferring to a lesser program where all of his current problems may still exist, will not help him got to the NFL. A Bronco departure would be worse for the program than a Jake Heaps transfer. I think this is why the mere thought of a Bronco departure gets me concerned. Is the program really in danger of losing Mendenhall? I’m not sure. But I’d feel much better about it if we knew Bronco was going to stay for the long haul. The two are in very different stages of their respective careers but could be facing some similar choices. I hope they both stay, but I’m afraid that one or both of them will decide to leave.

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by | November 15, 2011 · 9:37 pm

Podcast 44: Jeff Chatman, lousy football opponents, and Cougar hoops

Episode 44 is action pack and its dulcet tones are sure to make you happy. Adam begins with Matt. They discuss the thrashing of Idaho and preview the future thrashing of New Mexico State. They also talk a little about the men’s basketball team and they’re opening season loss to Utah State. Adam is then joined by BYU basketball legend Jeff Chatman. They discuss his career at BYU, his decision to come to BYU, his son’s decision to come to BYU, and talk about football as well. All of this and much more on a podcast that is sure to be more exciting than listening to nothing at all. Available, as always, here and on iTunes.

 

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by | November 9, 2011 · 9:49 pm

Podcast 43: Football chatter; Basketball preview

In the latest (and possibly greatest) Rise & Shout podcast, Adam joins forces with Matt to talk about the possibility of BYU joining the Big East, and Adam goes on a rant about San Diego State. They discuss Bronco’s recent forthcoming-ness in press conferences. They play answering machine. And they preview the upcoming basketball season. So much shallow analysis, that it almost seems deep. Available to download here or on iTunes.

 

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by | November 3, 2011 · 8:37 pm

Podcast 42: Bye Week Chatter and Hoops

Adam is joined by brother co-host Matt to discuss all things BYU sports. They answer your questions from the TweetBag, including discussing Team Riley vs. Team Jake. They play America’s new favorite podcast segment, Answering Machine, and Matt gets caught up in a case of the giggles. They conclude with talking about the upcoming hoops season. All this and a ton more available here or for download on iTunes.

 

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by | October 31, 2011 · 2:03 pm

Team Jake vs. Team Riley

By Adam
adam@loyalcougars.com
@ajmangum

On our last podcast, Matt and I discussed why following the BYU conversation on Twitter was often akin to CougarBoard, and how Matt has almost abandoned Twitter because of the ‘woe-is-me’ BYU fan attitude surrounding conference expansion.

I’m reaching that point on the debate between Riley Nelson and Jake Heaps. In a game in which a couple of special teams miscues led to an almost insurmountable hole, I think fans lost sight of the fact that there was a lot of improvement demonstrated by the Cougars. Brandon Doman called his best game, and the defense continues to be solid (if unspectacular). Honestly, I feel like the two sides are like squabaling teens arguing between Team Edward and Team Jacob.

So let’s step back and talk facts. Here are some of most pertinent facts about for each QB. As always, most of these stats are courtesy of the supremely excellent site CougarStats.com.

Jake Heaps Facts

  1. He has been historically bad. Ok, you may say that’s an opinion, not fact. But it’s fact. Do you know where Heaps’ 5.28 YPA ranks among the 50 BYU QB seasons in which a QB has thrown for more than 1000 yards? No. 50. He also has 6 INTs and 3 TDs. His 2011 season has been much closer to Matt Berry than it’s been to Ty Detmer.
  2. In his five starts, he faced three of the best four defenses (Texas, Utah and UCF) that BYU has faced this season (according to FootballOutsiders.com).
  3. Heaps’ INT % of 3.1% is good for 19th on the same list mentioned above. When you factor in fumbles, he is above-average in BYU history at protecting the football. His 2010 season was even better than that (2.3%).

Riley Nelson Facts

  1. His 59% completion percentage is good for 31st on the above-mentioned list. He is below-average in accuracy compared to other recent BYU QBs.
  2. His 368 yards rushing is good for 6th all-time for BYU QBs, and he has a lot of season left to go. His 5.5 YPC is more than any QB in BYU history with more than 200 yards rushing.
  3. His 8.88 YPA is ranked 11th all-time at BYU (ahead of Doman’s 2001 season, by the way).
  4. His INT % of 4.2% is 31st on the list. Factor in the fumbles, and he’s well below average at protecting the ball.

I’m sure some of you will accuse me of cherry-picking stats (maybe true) and of being a Heaps-hater (not true). Read what I said about Heaps’ 2010 season; I really thought he was going to get better, that 2011 was going to be a step toward becoming a QB who was mentioned in the same breath as some of the other Cougar greats.

But that did not happen.

 And please stop with the “Well, we’ve got to play Heaps because we need to develop him for next season.” First off, since when can a QB only develop by playing? There are a lot of examples of QBs who sat for a couple of seasons, learned the offense, matured, and became excellent QBs. Playing can work, but it’s not the only way.

I’m not against the debate. I don’t think Nelson is the second coming of Steve Young. But let’s use facts and not act like some teens arguing between vampires and werewolves.

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by | October 27, 2011 · 3:38 pm

The question: Can Riley Nelson beat the TCU defense?

As the Cougars head into the biggest remaining game on the schedule, and play once again in the house that Jerry built, I believe there is only one pertinent question: Can Riley Nelson keep the offense moving against a historically awesome TCU defense.

By most measures TCU is not as good defensively as they have been over the past couple of seasons. From 2008-2010, TCU only allowed more than 30 points in two games: a 35-10 loss to Oklahoma in 2008, and a 40-35 victory over SDSU last season. This has been one of the best defenses in the country, and has usually been impressive even when losing (like the 2010 Fiesta Bowl against Boise State).

But this is not that team. They have given up 50 points to Baylor and 40 points to SMU.* I know it’s all projecting, but I don’t think those 2009 and 2010 teams give up a combined 90 points to the Bears and Mustangs.

* SMU and Baylor don’t have a lot of cache, but those loses aren’t as bad as you might think. According to advanced metrics, both teams are top-30. But the point still stands: the Horned Frogs defense is good, but not as good.

Nelson hasn’t been tested by an above-average defense. According to Football Outsiders,  the best defense Nelson has played against this season is Oregon State, which is ranked No. 50 on in their defensive rankings. Utah State (76) and San Jose State (80) are not good defenses, and Idaho State is a bel0w-average FCS team.

In the pro-Jake Heaps crowd, their best argument is this: Nelson has run up yards against lousy defenses, while Heaps put up pedestrian numbers against very good defenses, like UT (22), Utah (30) and UCF (38).

It’s a legitimate point. Nelson’s speed and mobility has caused fits for opposing defenses, but the speed of TCU will be like nothing the Cougars have seen since Nelson took over the offense.  

I don’t think Nelson needs a lot of rushing yards for BYU to win; Gary Patterson and his staff will design a defense to keep him contained. Nelson needs to be able to scramble to pass, and be accurate on his intermediate routes, and hit a pass or two beyond 20 yards to keep the safeties from cheating on his shorter throws or staying too close on run support.

If the Cougars can get close to 450 yards total offense, I think they win, because I don’t believe the defense will put up another clunker like they did against Utah. But if Nelson sputters, if he turns the ball over 2-3 times, the hill will be too high.

But I think Nelson keeps it together, makes plays, and gets the Cougars offense moving. At least enough to bring home a victory.

Prediction: 33-30 (OT), BYU

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by | October 26, 2011 · 7:04 am

Podcast 41: TCU Preview

In Episode 41, Adam and co-host Matt dive into the conference expansion stuff, and Matt reveals why he is staying away from Twitter. They play a game called answering machine and likely tick off Jake Heaps and Gary Patterson. They preview the game against TCU (send angry emails and tweets to Matt). They also briefly discuss the basketball team. All this and more is available right here or on iTunes.

 

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