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by | December 6, 2011 · 9:58 pm

Podcast 47: Heaps leaves and season recap w/ Dick Harmon

In a mammoth edition of the Rise & Shout Podcast, Adam is joined by Dick Harmon of the Deseret News to discuss Jake Heaps’ decision to leave BYU. Adam and Dick also chat about the season and the big picture of independence and conference affiliation. Matt then joins the podcast to help dissect Heaps, the coaching staff, and the 2011 season. Your TweetBag questions are answered, and Adam coats his innards with the 23 flavors of his favorite beverage. All this and much more available here and on iTunes.

 

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by | · 1:52 pm

Heaps Leaves

by Matt Mangum

matt@loyalcougars.com or on twitter @matt_mangum

It became official yesterday that Jake Heaps was leaving BYU. It has been interesting to follow some of the conversation on twitter regarding Heaps’ big move. I’ve recently discussed the idea of Jake Heaps transferring here on the blog. In that post I wrote that I felt it would be a mistake for Heaps to transfer. I still feel that way. I think it’s unfortunate that this has worked out this way, but at the end of the day Heaps has to do what he thinks is best for him. Having already discussed what I think a transfer means for him, I am now more interested in what his decision means for BYU football.

The answer is: not much.

Aside from the Nelson versus Heaps debate, the loss of Heaps changes very little in the short term. Most would agree that Nelson was the likely starter going into the 2012 season. He would have lasted until he got hurt or faltered. At which point Heaps may have had a chance to finish off the schedule. Many people feel that Heaps would have done better with the schedule BYU had in the second half of this season than he did with the first few games. But that belief is anchored in the quality of the opponent, not in the development curve of Heaps. Heaps has not progressed as expected. Does that mean he will not in the future? No. He just isn’t there yet. Neither of them were ready in 2010. Heaps was not ready when 2011 began. Nelson didn’t blow him out of the water, Heaps simply did not perform.Was it a scheme problem? Partially. But a better scheme doesn’t make throws more accurate, make decisions in the pocket or stay focused after taking a hit. Heaps just wasn’t ready in 2011. I don’t see the gap between them being big enough in 2011 or 2012 to make a huge difference. If the gap had been larger, there would never have been a question about who to start.

In the long term, Heaps’ transfer will have negligible impact on recruiting. For the most part BYU recruits from the same places and from the same pool of players repeatedly. Most of these players will know the story and will see it for what it is. It was a singular bad situation. This will be ancient history in 18 months or less. BYU also relies heavily on finding students who love the program and want to play specifically at BYU. Those players will not be dissuaded by Jake Heaps’ decision. Ben Olson didn’t stop Jake Heaps from coming to BYU and Jake Heaps won’t stop Tanner Mangum from coming to BYU.

I don’t wish anything bad on Jake Heaps. I don’t held this decision against  him. For me, he simply becomes a quarterback at another school. It’s not at all personal for me as a fan nor should it be. Early last year I was among those that felt his talents were being squandered under the two quarterback system. I wanted Anae to give him the keys. He got the keys and made some incremental progress. This season I was disappointed with his lack of continued growth. I was continually mocked on the Rise and Shout podcast for being a Riley Nelson hater. But the fact of the matter is that when Nelson came in, the offense immediately began to get in the endzone more frequently. When that happens, the choice is clear. The team has to do what is in their best interest to win football games and Jake Heaps has to do what he feels is in his best interest to get to the next level or achieve his other goals. That’s what happened here. That’s life.

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by | December 4, 2011 · 8:13 pm

BYU will face Tulsa

by Matt Mangum

matt@loyalcougars.com or on twitter @matt_mangum

If we had all just read Rivals.com in August, we would have known that this was coming. BYU and Tulsa are officially going to square off in the Armed Forces Bowl.

BYU and Tulsa have played 7 times. BYU holds a 6-1 advantage in those matchups. Many of you will best remember the 2007 matchup. Max Hall threw for 537 yards. It was a 55-47 shootout that ended with a gut punch in the final minute when Andrew George fumbled the football. (George totally redeemed himself later) I’m not sure I can even talk about it without getting upset. So here we are in 2011 preparing to face Tulsa in the Armed Forces Bowl in Dallas, Texas. This season Tulsa’s losses came against the following schools: Oklahoma, Oklahoma State (who should be playing for a title), Boise State and Houston. Those are all decent teams and Tulsa doesn’t have much to be ashamed of there. In 2011 BYU lost to Texas, Utah and TCU. Neither of the team’s complete schedules shed much light on the matchup. There is one common opponent, Central Florida, and both teams beat the Golden Knights by a score of 24-17.

Tulsa boasts a quarterback, G.J. Kinne who has thrown for over 2800 yards and 25 TDs. Jake Heaps and Riley Nelson’s combined statistics are over 2800 yards and 25 TDs. Kinne threw for over 300 yards in five different games. As individuals, Nelson and Heaps only topped 300 yards a couple of times. That is an eery stat to me when I think about this game in the context if the 2007 matchup. The good news is that these are almost entirely different teams and the comparison is purely historical. The bad news is that Tulsa is not UTEP. This is a serious matchup against a team that can score points and move the football. This is a good chance for BYU to measure how far they have actually come this season. It should be exciting for fans and players. There are going to be alot of decisions to be made this offseason and this game may provide a good measuring stick to make quality decisions. If it does not go well, BYU heads into an offseason of uncertainty. If it does go well, it provides some serious framework for this offseason and next year.

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by | · 5:33 am

Should I Stay or Should I Go?

By Matt Mangum

matt@loyalcougars.com or on twitter @matt_mangum

A couple of months ago I read an article detailing why Jake Heaps should consider transferring to the University of Utah. Since that time, there has been a lot of other speculation about what Jake Heaps may decide to do with his football career following this season. I don’t buy for a minute that he is not seriously weighing out his options. I hope that nobody reading  this article beleives that either. However, I think he would be making a mistake if he left.

Where is he going to go? Jake’s time at BYU has been stormy. In two years he has worked with two very different OCs and inside of two different offensive systems. It was pretty clear that Robert Anae had little to no confidence in Jake Heaps last year. Towards the end of the season he opened things up a little bit. However, I left that season with the feeling that Anae did not feel comfortable giving Heaps the keys to the car. The entire situatuation in 2010 was a debacle. In my opionion it was as much of a coaching failure as anything. The team started the season without a single quarterback prepared to play. So after Anae got fired and Doman was promoted to OC, Doman put together a new offensive system that should have been a place for Heaps to thrive. There were two problems with this: Heaps was not ready for primetime at the beginning of 2011 and neither was Doman’s offense. This combination was a little bit of a nightmare to watch.

So where am I going with this? Jake Heaps and the staff never seemed to dedicate any time to simply developing Jake Heaps as a quarterback. He has some great raw skills. If this is going to work, he needs time to bring those skills up to the FBS level. At BYU he has an OC with confidence in Heaps’ future. He has already spent a year working with the new system. If he transfers to another school (wherever it may be), he’ll have to sit out a year anyways and he’ll have to learn a third offensive system. He would also not learn some of the intangible lessons that he will learn if he stays. If he does stay, the right move is to redshirt him next year. This would allow him time to bring his skills up to the FBS level and time to mature as a football player and leader. I believe that this combination gives him the greatest chances of success with his remaining years of eligibility. Moving to a new system will set his career back two years with only two years of eligibility and will not provide the same growth opportunity as a leader. Staying and redshirting is likely the most difficult thing for him to do. But in the end, doing the difficult thing will likely produce the best results.

So what about Bronco? Is he going to leave for UCLA or some other crazy situation when 2011 ends? I think Bronco may get some attention from schools and his name will be mentioned in some of these conversations. The main reasons that I believe Bronco would consider leaving are: BCS access and the ability to create a new coaching staff from scratch. I believe that many of Bronco’s comments about conference realignment indicate that he would love to be with a program that had access to the BCS system. I think that is more important to him than TV contracts. He’s a coach, he wants to win championships. For this same reason, I think he would also prefer to coach a team in a conference. I am absolutely putting words into his mouth here. But, if I were in his shoes, that’s how I would feel. He also had to wait for several years before he was able to get a coaching staff together that espoused his philosophies. Were he to start at a new program, he could likely put together a similar staff of his own right away.

I think the chances of Bronco leaving are higher than the chances of Jake transferring. If Bronco gets some attention, it would be from a program with real clout. I don’t think those same types of programs are going to be coming for Heaps. I think that Heaps transferring would be a mistake, but I am not sure that I could say the same thing about Mendenhall leaving. He could be offered a job at a prestigious program for a higher paycheck. From a professional standpoint, it would be a good move for him. Heaps on the other hand is a college sophomore who wants to play in the NFL. Transferring to a lesser program where all of his current problems may still exist, will not help him got to the NFL. A Bronco departure would be worse for the program than a Jake Heaps transfer. I think this is why the mere thought of a Bronco departure gets me concerned. Is the program really in danger of losing Mendenhall? I’m not sure. But I’d feel much better about it if we knew Bronco was going to stay for the long haul. The two are in very different stages of their respective careers but could be facing some similar choices. I hope they both stay, but I’m afraid that one or both of them will decide to leave.

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by | December 2, 2011 · 12:55 pm

Honolulu Horror

I have made no bones on our podcast that I don’t like playing in Hawaii. Heck, historically the biggest benefit of playing on the islands is a chance to get an extra game; BYU didn’t do that this year because a November game against Southwestern Tech did not seem appealing.

I don’t like playing in Honolulu because it has been the scene of two of the worst games in BYU history. Of course, this is emotional reaction to the place, not a completely rational one. Since 1978, BYU has played at Hawaii 15 times, and the Cougars are 11-4 over that time period, including eight straight victories there from 1978 to 1988.

But the two losses I referenced were brutal and drastically changed the perceptions of the those two Cougar teams.

Dec. 1, 1990: UH 59, BYU 28
I very clearly remember Ty Detmer wearing a Hawaiian shirt as he graciously accepted the 1990 Heisman Trophy in absentia. He would go on later that day to have one of his worst days as a collegiate QB — 22 for 45 with 4 interceptions. He was sacked three times and was under constant pressure. Texas A&M would follow the same blueprint to take him down in the Holiday Bowl several weeks later.

In a season that started with a stunning wins over UTEP and top-ranked Miami, in a season in which BYU was 10-1 before leaving for Honolulu, in a season in which Detmer broke through and won BYU’s only Heisman Trophy, it all turned sour in Honolulu. With a 10-3 finish and No. 22 ranking, the potentially otherwordly season became just an historic one (and only because of the Heisman).

Dec. 8, 2001: UH 72, BYU 45
The Cougars were an undefeated 12-0 headed into this trip to Honolulu. The Brandon Doman-led offense was humming and had put up some incredible numbers in Gary Crowton’s first season as the LaVell Edwards’ replacement.

The defense had been lackluster all season, bailed out by Doman and all-world running back Luke Staley. Many fans will remember that Staley did not start and that Doman broke his ribs in the first quarter.

But even with no Staley and less than a half of Doman, the offense rolled up 612 yards and Charlie Peterson was good in relief of Doman (though the Cougars did turn the ball over a whopping seven times). The Warriors gained 646 yards on offense and had 300+ yards on kick and punt returns. The BYU defense and special teams imploded against a Hawaii team that didn’t even make a bowl game. (Doman recently chatted with Jeff Call of the Deseret News about this horrendous experience.)

Similar to the 1990 season, the Hawaii loss led to an embarrassing dismantling in a bowl game, a 28-10 loss to Louisville in the Liberty Bowl.

 *   *   *   *

 2011 is not 1990 or 2001. First of all, unlike those two teams, this year’s version of the Cougars does not have national prominence riding on this game. And the Warriors are a pretty lousy team.

Still, I don’t like playing in Honolulu. The memories of 1990 and 2001 still haunt me, and though a loss to Hawaii tomorrow wouldn’t be the end of the world, it certainly would make a mediocre but palatable season turn into a pretty crummy one.

Aloha.

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by | October 31, 2011 · 2:03 pm

Team Jake vs. Team Riley

By Adam
adam@loyalcougars.com
@ajmangum

On our last podcast, Matt and I discussed why following the BYU conversation on Twitter was often akin to CougarBoard, and how Matt has almost abandoned Twitter because of the ‘woe-is-me’ BYU fan attitude surrounding conference expansion.

I’m reaching that point on the debate between Riley Nelson and Jake Heaps. In a game in which a couple of special teams miscues led to an almost insurmountable hole, I think fans lost sight of the fact that there was a lot of improvement demonstrated by the Cougars. Brandon Doman called his best game, and the defense continues to be solid (if unspectacular). Honestly, I feel like the two sides are like squabaling teens arguing between Team Edward and Team Jacob.

So let’s step back and talk facts. Here are some of most pertinent facts about for each QB. As always, most of these stats are courtesy of the supremely excellent site CougarStats.com.

Jake Heaps Facts

  1. He has been historically bad. Ok, you may say that’s an opinion, not fact. But it’s fact. Do you know where Heaps’ 5.28 YPA ranks among the 50 BYU QB seasons in which a QB has thrown for more than 1000 yards? No. 50. He also has 6 INTs and 3 TDs. His 2011 season has been much closer to Matt Berry than it’s been to Ty Detmer.
  2. In his five starts, he faced three of the best four defenses (Texas, Utah and UCF) that BYU has faced this season (according to FootballOutsiders.com).
  3. Heaps’ INT % of 3.1% is good for 19th on the same list mentioned above. When you factor in fumbles, he is above-average in BYU history at protecting the football. His 2010 season was even better than that (2.3%).

Riley Nelson Facts

  1. His 59% completion percentage is good for 31st on the above-mentioned list. He is below-average in accuracy compared to other recent BYU QBs.
  2. His 368 yards rushing is good for 6th all-time for BYU QBs, and he has a lot of season left to go. His 5.5 YPC is more than any QB in BYU history with more than 200 yards rushing.
  3. His 8.88 YPA is ranked 11th all-time at BYU (ahead of Doman’s 2001 season, by the way).
  4. His INT % of 4.2% is 31st on the list. Factor in the fumbles, and he’s well below average at protecting the ball.

I’m sure some of you will accuse me of cherry-picking stats (maybe true) and of being a Heaps-hater (not true). Read what I said about Heaps’ 2010 season; I really thought he was going to get better, that 2011 was going to be a step toward becoming a QB who was mentioned in the same breath as some of the other Cougar greats.

But that did not happen.

 And please stop with the “Well, we’ve got to play Heaps because we need to develop him for next season.” First off, since when can a QB only develop by playing? There are a lot of examples of QBs who sat for a couple of seasons, learned the offense, matured, and became excellent QBs. Playing can work, but it’s not the only way.

I’m not against the debate. I don’t think Nelson is the second coming of Steve Young. But let’s use facts and not act like some teens arguing between vampires and werewolves.

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by | October 20, 2011 · 7:33 am

Podcast 40: Jay Drew, Mid-Season Report Cards

In Episode 40, Adam is joined by Salt Lake Tribune beat writer Jay Drew to talk about conference expansion, the current state of Cougar football, and whether Brandon Davies owes any of us an explanation. Matt then makes a triumphant return to the podcast to help Adam hand out mid-term report cards and to answer your questions from the TweetBag. Nonsense includes the Carson Palmer trade and the continuing debate about America’s best burger. As always, listen here or download on iTunes.

 

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by | October 14, 2011 · 9:51 am

5 Questions: BYU @ Oregon State

By Adam
adam@loyalcougars.com
@ajmangum

 1. How tough an environment is Reser Stadium in Corvallis? Will the crowd be a major factor?
Reser stadium seats less than 46,000, but if you talk with Oregon fans, it feels like a lot more during the Civil War games in Corvallis against the Ducks. According the Bleacher Reports top 50 college football stadiums, Reser did not make the cut (LaVell Edwards Stadium was No. 39). Of course, War Memorial Stadium at Wyoming was ranked, so not sure you can trust that. Remind me to tell you the story sometime of when I was almost killed there.

Imagine if BYU was 1-4 and had lost to an FCS opponent at home to start the season. How excited would the Cougar crowd be about a borderline top-50 team coming into town? Probably not very. I think Beaver fans are beaten down, and one win against a lousy Arizona team probably hasn’t brought them back to full power. The Cougars have a great opportunity to take the crowd out of the game early.

2. Do the Oregon State offensive strengths match-up too well with the BYU weaknesses?
I’ve read several previews that wonder if the Oregon State passing game (ranked 30th in the country in yards per game) is a bad match-up for a BYU secondary that has been vulnerable .

It’s a good question, but I don’t think the Beaver passing game is that good. Led by freshman Sean Mannion, they have only one 300+ yard game this season, and that was in a losing effort against Arizona State when they chucked the ball 66 times. I think if OSU throws the ball 60+ times against BYU, that would be a terrific sign.

Yes the passing game is their strength, and expect a decent day for them in that department, but call me skeptical of a unit that put up 230 yards against Sacramento State and is averaging just 6.1 YPA.

3. Does Riley Nelson continue his successful run? Or does Jake Heaps re-emerge?
Don and I talked a lot about this on the podcast; Nelson became the QB at the optimal time during a weak portion of the BYU schedule. Heaps played against likely 3 of the best 4 opponents the Cougars will face all year, and now Nelson gets his shot in cupcake alley.

And while that context is important, the stats so overwhelmingly favor Nelson that I’m not sure why anyone would be asking for Heaps’ return. Heaps has been almost as turnover prone, less accurate, and less efficient. With usually tons of time in the pocket, he can’t make the right decision.

Of course, if Nelson puts up a 5-for-12, 67 yards passing, 2 turnover first half, I think Bronco Mendenhall and Brandon Doman will be tempted to turn back to the former prospect. Personally, I would give James Lark a shot, but I believe if Nelson stumbles, Heaps will get the opportunity to prove his detractors wrong.

4. Is Michael Alisa for real?
Alisa was an afterthought coming out of Timpview High in 2008, a two-star filler, a special teams player.

That perception, at least for me, lasted until last week. With seasoned RBs in Josh Quezada, JJ DiLuigi and Bryan Kariya, who cared about Alisa? He entered the San Jose State game with 3 carries for 2 yards.

Now he is the RB with the highest YPC number, and he was great against the Spartans. He hit the holes violently, something that Cougar backs have failed to do this season, with the possible exception of Kariya in the 4th quarter against Utah State.

I have no idea if Alisa is for real or not, or if we just saw his career game. But I hope he gets 12-15 touches against the Beavers so we can find out if he’s really the remedy to BYU’s anemic rushing attack.

5. Can the Cougars put together 4 solid quarters? Please?
BYU has been disjointed this season, especially on offense. And the defense has also had major lapses that have cost the Cougars. Can they put together a complete game and easily win a game they should, on paper, easily win?

Unfortunately I don’t think the Cougars destroy the Beavers like they’re capable of doing. Nelson will lead the offense to 400+ yards again, but will make some major mistakes. And the defense will be solid, but give up a couple big plays. Still, the Cougars will be one win away from bowl eligibility come Saturday night.

Prediction: 24-20, BYU.

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by | October 10, 2011 · 8:36 pm

The key word: Efficiency

By Adam
adam@loyalcougars.com
@ajmangum

There were a lot of calls for Riley Nelson’s well coifed head on Saturday by fans on Twitter after his third turnover. He made a couple of poor decisions, and the one pass when he was about to get sacked looked like a Pee Wee league punt.

Turnovers are bad, but the Cougars have suffered through something much worse this season: an inefficient offense. When Jake Heaps was running the show, the Cougars turned the ball over a lot and also couldn’t sustain drives or score points.

Nelson, in 5+ quarters, has run an efficient offense. In an efficient passing offense, 1-2 turnovers is likely part of the equation on most days. Many very successful BYU QBs have averaged more than one INT per game. It’s just part of the program.

And the Cougars have been a ton more efficient with Riley at the helm. Though the offense stalled somewhat in the second half, the end results were a season-high 29 points and the second-highest total yards (behind last week’s Nelson-driven performance against Utah State).

Don’t misunderstand this: Nelson made a lot of mistakes, and if BYU is going to beat the remaining good teams on their schedule (TCU, maybe Hawaii), Nelson will need to play better.

The biggest caveat with Nelson’s immergence is this: He may not actually play against a top-30 team, and this could elevate his statistics and give the fans and (more importantly) the coaches a false sense of security regarding his abilities and potential going forward. Maybe like Heaps’ performance did in the second half of the 2010 season.

The stats are overwhelming in Nelson’s favor, even when factoring in the turnovers. Nelson is averaging almost 9 yards per pass attempt, while Heaps is averaging an attrocious 5.2 YPA. And as much as everyone was up in arms over Nelson’s turnovers, Heaps has been turnover prone as well. And with an inefficient offense, turnovers lead to short fields for the opposition. Two of the Nelson turnovers were inside the Spartan 5-yard line, which is bad, but not as bad as turning the ball over in your own territory.

I am not defending the poor plays Nelson made, and I’m not proclaiming him the second coming of Brandon Doman (though the comparison is interesting). But if you’re asking for Heaps to replace Nelson, the numbers don’t support that at all.

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by | October 6, 2011 · 3:52 pm

5 Questions: SJSU @ BYU

By Adam
adam@loyalcougars.com
@ajmangum

Did you know that San Jose State leads the all-time series 9-5? As usual, that nugget is courtesy of CougarStats.com. Of course, they’ve only met once since I was born, and that was a 1998 shoot-out in Provo. A ton has changed since then for both programs. So, as usual, I’ve got some questions and answers about the big game.

1. Just how badly will BYU beat SJSU?
I know that a lukewarm 3-2 start and Big 12 expansion talk have Cougar fans at DEFCON 1, but this team isn’t horrible, and SJSU is. I know the sportswriter cliché is “Look out, the Spartans have won two in a row!”, but they beat two other bad teams in Colorado State and New Mexico State.

Football Outsiders has SJSU ranked at No. 87 and BYU at No. 55. That’s like the difference between LSU and TCU, so let’s not oversell the Spartans. Anything can happen, but the Cougars are likely to cruise in this one by several TDs.

2. Who will start at QB? Will both Heaps and Nelson play?
The BYU coaching staff is silent on this issue, but I would be shocked if Riley Nelson doesn’t get the start and most (if not all) of the snaps. He proved it on the field. And as Greg Wrubell said on this week’s podcast, this is a results business, and Heaps has stunk in 2011.

3. Is the BYU defense good or not?
This unit can look very good and then very bad. After giving up a ton of yards to Utah State in the first three quarters, the Cougar D slammed the door on the last two Aggie drives. They have also looked dominant in stretches against Ole Miss, Texas and UCF, while looking terrible against Utah and in stretches against Texas and UCF.

I think the answer is that the BYU defense is good, but has some weaknesses against mobile QBs and big RBs. They will look really good against the Spartans.

4. Will the BYU rushing game find it’s groove against the Spartans?
Coming into the season, I thought the BYU rushing game would be very good, better than last year. OC Brandon Doman talked about a play-action based passing scheme, and I believed that three experienced and talented RBs would help open up the BYU pass offense.

SJSU is 95th in the country against the run, and their defense is 87th overall. This could be what the doctor ordered to get JJ DiLuigi, Quezada and Kariya going. But let’s not sugar coat this; the team is only averaging 3.1 YPC, and Quezada is under 3.

5. Will anyone still be awake when this game ends?
As someone who lives in the Central Time Zone, I’m not thrilled about the 9:15 CDT start. If it’s 41-10 in the middle of the third quarter, I make no promises about staying awake. I can guarantee my wife will be out before halftime.

And I think this one is a snoozer. And boy does my blood pressure need a snoozer in BYU’s favor.

Prediction: 41-17, BYU.

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