by | December 4, 2011 · 5:33 am

Should I Stay or Should I Go?

By Matt Mangum

matt@loyalcougars.com or on twitter @matt_mangum

A couple of months ago I read an article detailing why Jake Heaps should consider transferring to the University of Utah. Since that time, there has been a lot of other speculation about what Jake Heaps may decide to do with his football career following this season. I don’t buy for a minute that he is not seriously weighing out his options. I hope that nobody reading  this article beleives that either. However, I think he would be making a mistake if he left.

Where is he going to go? Jake’s time at BYU has been stormy. In two years he has worked with two very different OCs and inside of two different offensive systems. It was pretty clear that Robert Anae had little to no confidence in Jake Heaps last year. Towards the end of the season he opened things up a little bit. However, I left that season with the feeling that Anae did not feel comfortable giving Heaps the keys to the car. The entire situatuation in 2010 was a debacle. In my opionion it was as much of a coaching failure as anything. The team started the season without a single quarterback prepared to play. So after Anae got fired and Doman was promoted to OC, Doman put together a new offensive system that should have been a place for Heaps to thrive. There were two problems with this: Heaps was not ready for primetime at the beginning of 2011 and neither was Doman’s offense. This combination was a little bit of a nightmare to watch.

So where am I going with this? Jake Heaps and the staff never seemed to dedicate any time to simply developing Jake Heaps as a quarterback. He has some great raw skills. If this is going to work, he needs time to bring those skills up to the FBS level. At BYU he has an OC with confidence in Heaps’ future. He has already spent a year working with the new system. If he transfers to another school (wherever it may be), he’ll have to sit out a year anyways and he’ll have to learn a third offensive system. He would also not learn some of the intangible lessons that he will learn if he stays. If he does stay, the right move is to redshirt him next year. This would allow him time to bring his skills up to the FBS level and time to mature as a football player and leader. I believe that this combination gives him the greatest chances of success with his remaining years of eligibility. Moving to a new system will set his career back two years with only two years of eligibility and will not provide the same growth opportunity as a leader. Staying and redshirting is likely the most difficult thing for him to do. But in the end, doing the difficult thing will likely produce the best results.

So what about Bronco? Is he going to leave for UCLA or some other crazy situation when 2011 ends? I think Bronco may get some attention from schools and his name will be mentioned in some of these conversations. The main reasons that I believe Bronco would consider leaving are: BCS access and the ability to create a new coaching staff from scratch. I believe that many of Bronco’s comments about conference realignment indicate that he would love to be with a program that had access to the BCS system. I think that is more important to him than TV contracts. He’s a coach, he wants to win championships. For this same reason, I think he would also prefer to coach a team in a conference. I am absolutely putting words into his mouth here. But, if I were in his shoes, that’s how I would feel. He also had to wait for several years before he was able to get a coaching staff together that espoused his philosophies. Were he to start at a new program, he could likely put together a similar staff of his own right away.

I think the chances of Bronco leaving are higher than the chances of Jake transferring. If Bronco gets some attention, it would be from a program with real clout. I don’t think those same types of programs are going to be coming for Heaps. I think that Heaps transferring would be a mistake, but I am not sure that I could say the same thing about Mendenhall leaving. He could be offered a job at a prestigious program for a higher paycheck. From a professional standpoint, it would be a good move for him. Heaps on the other hand is a college sophomore who wants to play in the NFL. Transferring to a lesser program where all of his current problems may still exist, will not help him got to the NFL. A Bronco departure would be worse for the program than a Jake Heaps transfer. I think this is why the mere thought of a Bronco departure gets me concerned. Is the program really in danger of losing Mendenhall? I’m not sure. But I’d feel much better about it if we knew Bronco was going to stay for the long haul. The two are in very different stages of their respective careers but could be facing some similar choices. I hope they both stay, but I’m afraid that one or both of them will decide to leave.

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by | December 2, 2011 · 12:55 pm

Honolulu Horror

I have made no bones on our podcast that I don’t like playing in Hawaii. Heck, historically the biggest benefit of playing on the islands is a chance to get an extra game; BYU didn’t do that this year because a November game against Southwestern Tech did not seem appealing.

I don’t like playing in Honolulu because it has been the scene of two of the worst games in BYU history. Of course, this is emotional reaction to the place, not a completely rational one. Since 1978, BYU has played at Hawaii 15 times, and the Cougars are 11-4 over that time period, including eight straight victories there from 1978 to 1988.

But the two losses I referenced were brutal and drastically changed the perceptions of the those two Cougar teams.

Dec. 1, 1990: UH 59, BYU 28
I very clearly remember Ty Detmer wearing a Hawaiian shirt as he graciously accepted the 1990 Heisman Trophy in absentia. He would go on later that day to have one of his worst days as a collegiate QB — 22 for 45 with 4 interceptions. He was sacked three times and was under constant pressure. Texas A&M would follow the same blueprint to take him down in the Holiday Bowl several weeks later.

In a season that started with a stunning wins over UTEP and top-ranked Miami, in a season in which BYU was 10-1 before leaving for Honolulu, in a season in which Detmer broke through and won BYU’s only Heisman Trophy, it all turned sour in Honolulu. With a 10-3 finish and No. 22 ranking, the potentially otherwordly season became just an historic one (and only because of the Heisman).

Dec. 8, 2001: UH 72, BYU 45
The Cougars were an undefeated 12-0 headed into this trip to Honolulu. The Brandon Doman-led offense was humming and had put up some incredible numbers in Gary Crowton’s first season as the LaVell Edwards’ replacement.

The defense had been lackluster all season, bailed out by Doman and all-world running back Luke Staley. Many fans will remember that Staley did not start and that Doman broke his ribs in the first quarter.

But even with no Staley and less than a half of Doman, the offense rolled up 612 yards and Charlie Peterson was good in relief of Doman (though the Cougars did turn the ball over a whopping seven times). The Warriors gained 646 yards on offense and had 300+ yards on kick and punt returns. The BYU defense and special teams imploded against a Hawaii team that didn’t even make a bowl game. (Doman recently chatted with Jeff Call of the Deseret News about this horrendous experience.)

Similar to the 1990 season, the Hawaii loss led to an embarrassing dismantling in a bowl game, a 28-10 loss to Louisville in the Liberty Bowl.

 *   *   *   *

 2011 is not 1990 or 2001. First of all, unlike those two teams, this year’s version of the Cougars does not have national prominence riding on this game. And the Warriors are a pretty lousy team.

Still, I don’t like playing in Honolulu. The memories of 1990 and 2001 still haunt me, and though a loss to Hawaii tomorrow wouldn’t be the end of the world, it certainly would make a mediocre but palatable season turn into a pretty crummy one.

Aloha.

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by | November 30, 2011 · 9:48 pm

Podcast 46: Greg Wrubell; Hawaii game preview

In a fantastic episode 46, Adam is joined by KSL’s Greg Wrubell, who helps Adam break down what actually happened between BYU and the Big East. Greg also offers his perspective on the men’s basketball team and its young season. Matt comes on after Greg to talk hoops, preview the Hawaii game, and to answer an excellent collection of Tweetbag questions. All this and continued banter about Dr Pepper Ten available here and on iTunes.

 

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by | November 22, 2011 · 8:18 pm

Podcast 45: No Big East? No Big Deal

In a bite-sized edition of the podcast, Adam and Matt quickly review their take-aways from thumping New Mexico State. They then dive head-first into discussing the breakdown in talks between BYU and the Big East. They discuss why they are not panicking and why they both agree that it’s the right decision for BYU football. Adam also compares Dr Pepper Ten to sewer water. All this on Episode 45 of the Rise & Shout podcast, available here and on iTunes.

 

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by | November 15, 2011 · 9:37 pm

Podcast 44: Jeff Chatman, lousy football opponents, and Cougar hoops

Episode 44 is action pack and its dulcet tones are sure to make you happy. Adam begins with Matt. They discuss the thrashing of Idaho and preview the future thrashing of New Mexico State. They also talk a little about the men’s basketball team and they’re opening season loss to Utah State. Adam is then joined by BYU basketball legend Jeff Chatman. They discuss his career at BYU, his decision to come to BYU, his son’s decision to come to BYU, and talk about football as well. All of this and much more on a podcast that is sure to be more exciting than listening to nothing at all. Available, as always, here and on iTunes.

 

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by | November 9, 2011 · 9:49 pm

Podcast 43: Football chatter; Basketball preview

In the latest (and possibly greatest) Rise & Shout podcast, Adam joins forces with Matt to talk about the possibility of BYU joining the Big East, and Adam goes on a rant about San Diego State. They discuss Bronco’s recent forthcoming-ness in press conferences. They play answering machine. And they preview the upcoming basketball season. So much shallow analysis, that it almost seems deep. Available to download here or on iTunes.

 

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by | November 8, 2011 · 12:19 pm

5 Questions: Should BYU join the Big East in football

There have been reports that the Big East is courting BYU. Bronco even mentioned it in his press conference, which seemed really strange after the BYU coaches and administration’s cone of silence in regard to conference realignment talk during discussions with the Big 12. Why did Bronco break this code? Was he going off script? Was he trying to signal to the press and fans that something is imminent? Why? Why?

Before I completely lose it, here are five questions about whether it would be a good idea to join the Big East in football. I am assuming (and this may be completely wrong) that BYU would, like has been reported with Air Force and Boise State, only join for football and not for the other sports.

 1. What does joining the Big East actually do for BYU?
The biggest advantage is easier access to the BCS than independence, membership in the MWC, or membership in a better football league (like the Big 12). The Big East is pretty wide open in football, with the program to watch being Boise State the minute they enter the door. Let me put it this way: I can envision a much better shot at multiple BCS appearances as a member of the Big East than I can if the Cougars joined the Big 12.

The big question about BCS access is whether the Big East will keep its BCS AQ status after 2013 (discussed more below).

2. Would the money be better?
Depends. Some reports show membership in the Big East as being less profitable than independence. I think eventually, yes, especially if conference realignment makes independent scheduling of late-season match-ups harder. But that’s a tough call, especially since we don’t know for sure exactly what BYU is grossing right now.

3. Would TV access be better or worse than independence?
Again, it depends. As we’ve all learned, it’s all about Tier 3 rights, baby! If we’re playing Rutgers in New Jersey, will BYU fans outside of Utah get to see the game?

Using the Big East home games for this weekend as an example, Pittsburgh on the road at Louisville is on several regional networks and online at ESPN3. South Florida at Syracuse is a Friday night game on ESPN2.

I can say this for certain: there would be less nationally televised games on the big ESPN networks (assuming BYU can’t keep its contract with BYU), but access would definitely be better than the MWC. But many fans outside of Utah might still have to jump through hoops to catch all the games.

4. Is the Big East stable?
No, but neither is the Big 12. I think the SEC, Pac12 and Big Ten have solidified their places in the college football landscape, and everyone else is scrambling not to be left out. I don’t believe the Big East is in as bad a mess as some say. The same doomsday scenarios were played when Virginia Tech, Boston College and Miami left the Big East after the 2004 season, and while it made the Big East a mediocre football conference, they kept their card to the big kids’ table.

But can the Big East even keep it’s BCS status after a new deal is negotiated (starting in 2014)? Excellent question, but I think it can and will if BSU officially joins and they can add a handle of decent football programs. But that’s pure conjecture on my part.

5. If BYU doesn’t join a conference soon, are they going to be left out of the Super Conference realignment? Will they become irrelevant?
This is the pivotal question. Are Super Conferences imminent? I don’t think so, but many smart observers do, with a Super Conference playoff the gold at the end of that rainbow. And if you’re not in, you might as well be played FCS.

I know being left out of a Super Conference landscape scares a lot of BYU fans, and I’m sure the administration is keeping that in mind as well. If the entire system changes to the point that independence is no longer viable, the freedom of football independence could become a shackle.

Conclusion: Without, admittedly, knowing all the facts, I think BYU should hold for now. I don’t think the Big East will become any less desperate in next 12-18 months, so there’s no need to jump yet. And if Super Conferences are truly inevitable, there’s no guarantee that the Big East will even be invited to that party.

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by | November 3, 2011 · 8:37 pm

Podcast 42: Bye Week Chatter and Hoops

Adam is joined by brother co-host Matt to discuss all things BYU sports. They answer your questions from the TweetBag, including discussing Team Riley vs. Team Jake. They play America’s new favorite podcast segment, Answering Machine, and Matt gets caught up in a case of the giggles. They conclude with talking about the upcoming hoops season. All this and a ton more available here or for download on iTunes.

 

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by | October 31, 2011 · 2:03 pm

Team Jake vs. Team Riley

By Adam
adam@loyalcougars.com
@ajmangum

On our last podcast, Matt and I discussed why following the BYU conversation on Twitter was often akin to CougarBoard, and how Matt has almost abandoned Twitter because of the ‘woe-is-me’ BYU fan attitude surrounding conference expansion.

I’m reaching that point on the debate between Riley Nelson and Jake Heaps. In a game in which a couple of special teams miscues led to an almost insurmountable hole, I think fans lost sight of the fact that there was a lot of improvement demonstrated by the Cougars. Brandon Doman called his best game, and the defense continues to be solid (if unspectacular). Honestly, I feel like the two sides are like squabaling teens arguing between Team Edward and Team Jacob.

So let’s step back and talk facts. Here are some of most pertinent facts about for each QB. As always, most of these stats are courtesy of the supremely excellent site CougarStats.com.

Jake Heaps Facts

  1. He has been historically bad. Ok, you may say that’s an opinion, not fact. But it’s fact. Do you know where Heaps’ 5.28 YPA ranks among the 50 BYU QB seasons in which a QB has thrown for more than 1000 yards? No. 50. He also has 6 INTs and 3 TDs. His 2011 season has been much closer to Matt Berry than it’s been to Ty Detmer.
  2. In his five starts, he faced three of the best four defenses (Texas, Utah and UCF) that BYU has faced this season (according to FootballOutsiders.com).
  3. Heaps’ INT % of 3.1% is good for 19th on the same list mentioned above. When you factor in fumbles, he is above-average in BYU history at protecting the football. His 2010 season was even better than that (2.3%).

Riley Nelson Facts

  1. His 59% completion percentage is good for 31st on the above-mentioned list. He is below-average in accuracy compared to other recent BYU QBs.
  2. His 368 yards rushing is good for 6th all-time for BYU QBs, and he has a lot of season left to go. His 5.5 YPC is more than any QB in BYU history with more than 200 yards rushing.
  3. His 8.88 YPA is ranked 11th all-time at BYU (ahead of Doman’s 2001 season, by the way).
  4. His INT % of 4.2% is 31st on the list. Factor in the fumbles, and he’s well below average at protecting the ball.

I’m sure some of you will accuse me of cherry-picking stats (maybe true) and of being a Heaps-hater (not true). Read what I said about Heaps’ 2010 season; I really thought he was going to get better, that 2011 was going to be a step toward becoming a QB who was mentioned in the same breath as some of the other Cougar greats.

But that did not happen.

 And please stop with the “Well, we’ve got to play Heaps because we need to develop him for next season.” First off, since when can a QB only develop by playing? There are a lot of examples of QBs who sat for a couple of seasons, learned the offense, matured, and became excellent QBs. Playing can work, but it’s not the only way.

I’m not against the debate. I don’t think Nelson is the second coming of Steve Young. But let’s use facts and not act like some teens arguing between vampires and werewolves.

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by | October 27, 2011 · 3:38 pm

The question: Can Riley Nelson beat the TCU defense?

As the Cougars head into the biggest remaining game on the schedule, and play once again in the house that Jerry built, I believe there is only one pertinent question: Can Riley Nelson keep the offense moving against a historically awesome TCU defense.

By most measures TCU is not as good defensively as they have been over the past couple of seasons. From 2008-2010, TCU only allowed more than 30 points in two games: a 35-10 loss to Oklahoma in 2008, and a 40-35 victory over SDSU last season. This has been one of the best defenses in the country, and has usually been impressive even when losing (like the 2010 Fiesta Bowl against Boise State).

But this is not that team. They have given up 50 points to Baylor and 40 points to SMU.* I know it’s all projecting, but I don’t think those 2009 and 2010 teams give up a combined 90 points to the Bears and Mustangs.

* SMU and Baylor don’t have a lot of cache, but those loses aren’t as bad as you might think. According to advanced metrics, both teams are top-30. But the point still stands: the Horned Frogs defense is good, but not as good.

Nelson hasn’t been tested by an above-average defense. According to Football Outsiders,  the best defense Nelson has played against this season is Oregon State, which is ranked No. 50 on in their defensive rankings. Utah State (76) and San Jose State (80) are not good defenses, and Idaho State is a bel0w-average FCS team.

In the pro-Jake Heaps crowd, their best argument is this: Nelson has run up yards against lousy defenses, while Heaps put up pedestrian numbers against very good defenses, like UT (22), Utah (30) and UCF (38).

It’s a legitimate point. Nelson’s speed and mobility has caused fits for opposing defenses, but the speed of TCU will be like nothing the Cougars have seen since Nelson took over the offense.  

I don’t think Nelson needs a lot of rushing yards for BYU to win; Gary Patterson and his staff will design a defense to keep him contained. Nelson needs to be able to scramble to pass, and be accurate on his intermediate routes, and hit a pass or two beyond 20 yards to keep the safeties from cheating on his shorter throws or staying too close on run support.

If the Cougars can get close to 450 yards total offense, I think they win, because I don’t believe the defense will put up another clunker like they did against Utah. But if Nelson sputters, if he turns the ball over 2-3 times, the hill will be too high.

But I think Nelson keeps it together, makes plays, and gets the Cougars offense moving. At least enough to bring home a victory.

Prediction: 33-30 (OT), BYU

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