After less than a year running this blog, Matt and I have been invited to join a talented team of BYU bloggers at VanquishTheFoe.com, which is part of the excellent SB Nation family of sports blogs. VTF’s new managing editors, Zach Bloxham and Brett Hein, were occasional contributors here at LoyalCougars, and are the minds behind the excellent The Upset Blog. Matt and I are excited to be joining a great team of dedicated and opinionated bloggers, and we sincerely believe VTF will be the premier BYU sports blog on the web, with excellent analysis, coverage, and commentary.

As part of that, our little Rise & Shout podcast will also be going over to VTF, but will remain branded Rise & Shout. It will continue to be available on iTunes, but will be exclusively available for online streaming at VTF.

What will happen to LoyalCougars? It will become dormant. All our old content will stay here, but all new content will be part of the VTF blog.

We appreciate the loyal readers we’ve gained here, and we hope you follow us to VanquishTheFoe. Go Cougars!

Sports weeks like this are few and far between. BYU starts its first (of many?) seasons as a basketball team in the WCC, and what better way to start that affiliation than with a big game on the road against St. Mary’s, one of the Big Three this season in WCC basketball (BYU and Gonzaga being the others). And of course, a bowl game and a chance for 10 wins and a top 25 ranking for the football team.

But this post is really about the basketball team and a big game against St. Mary’s. Though this doesn’t compare to last season’s thrilling match-ups against San Diego State (both teams being ranked in the top 10), there is a lot of appeal for this one. Though neither the Cougars or the Gaels* are ranked, I think there’s a chance both are top 25 teams in a few weeks and both could be dangerous NCAA Tournament teams.

* Check out Wikipedia for a definition of the term Gaels. Still getting used to these mascots in the WCC. Yeah, Gonzaga is typical and boring with Bulldogs, but you have the Gaels, the Dons, the Waves, the Toreros, and the Pilots. Awesome.

I think the WCC is going to be very interesting at the top, with Gonzaga and St. Mary’s as formidable obstacles to the Cougars winning the WCC title in their first season. But who’s the best team so far? Depends on who you ask. With about a dozen games in the book for each school, the computers seem to be divided on who’s best. Pomeroy, Sagarin and RPI are not really that close to each other on these three (see below). I also included a non-scientific average of the three rankings.

Pomeroy Sagarin RPI Average
BYU 20 28 62 37
St. Mary’s 27 18 42 29
Gonzaga 29 41 11 27

What does this tell us? That until these three teams play each other, pick a computer ranking to tell which one is better and I’ll pick another. Pick a marquee win or a close loss, and I’ll pick another.

I think the order is BYU, St. Mary’s and then Gonzaga. But Mark Few is a fantastic coach, and there’s no reason the Bulldogs couldn’t become the best team in the conference when all is said and done.

Getting back to the game against St. Mary’s, the top two scorers for the Gaels are 6-6 senior forward Rob Jones (14.0) and 6-4 Australian junior point guard Matthew Dellavedova (13.9), who also leads the team in assists (6.4). The match-up between the experienced Dellavedova (in his third year running the team) and the uber-talented Matt Carlino could be the most fun part of watching this game.

Jones leads the team in rebounding (10.6), and helps anchor a very efficient offense that thrives on crisp passing and execution. They are not particularly big, and Brandon Davies should be a match-up problem. Expect to see several different Gaels guard him throughout the game, with a mix of smaller defenders who will try to annoy him when he touches the ball.

Neither of these teams play fast, and both teams do a very good job of clamping down on defense. But the Cougars have struggled defensively in the first half in each of their last two games against D-1 foes. If they do that again St. Mary’s, coming back will not be as easy.

Despite the smallish size, the Gaels are a terrific defensive rebounding team, and have guards who can rebound well. They do not turn the ball over often, so the Cougars will need to be very efficient on offense. They’re not a great 3-point shooting team (just 34.0%), but they chuck it up a lot (11th most in the country), so the perimeter defense will be key.

On a recent podcast, I predicted that BYU would lose this game. And while I think it will be close, upon closer examination, the Cougars are a tough match-up for St. Mary’s. BYU is more athletic at several key positions, and Davies is a problem the Gaels don’t have a good answer for. If the junior forward can stay out of foul trouble (a big if, I know), he should dominate.

But even if Davies struggles, Noah Hatsock and Jones cancel out, as should Carlino and Dellavedova. If Brock Zylstra and others can outplay their St. Mary’s counterparts, the Cougars should be able to steal their first conference game in the WCC.

Prediction: BYU 74, St. Mary’s 71

By Spencer
@SpenceT25

 Conference expansion has been a mixed bag.  I thought that Nebraska to the Big 10 was a no-brainer.  Utah and Colorado to the PAC-12 weren’t as sexy, but I liked seeing the PAC get to 12.  Since then, though, the moves haven’t made a lot of sense.  I detest Texas A&M to the SEC. Mizzou too.  Syracuse and Pitt to the ACC?  Garbage.  TCU to the Big XII made sense, so I don’t know how that decision was made.  All this got me to thinking that someone ought to be in charge of D-1 College Football.  A commish, so to speak.  So, if I was hired to be the commish of the FBS, what would I do?  Where would I start?

Let’s blow it up

I’d start by blowing up the whole system.  I would make all conferences regional in nature and balanced with nine teams each.  No independents.  No teams in California in the same conference with teams in New York.  Also, no conference championship games, because really what is a championship game other than an imitation playoff?  No, in my world, we’d actually have a playoff so there would be no need for conference championship games.  Conference play would be balanced with four home and four away games.  Add four non-conference games.   Let teams play who, where, and when they may.  Basketball and the other sports can continue on in the conferences they are in now – I don’t care.

Having 8 9-team conferences segues perfectly into an 8-team playoff.  This would mean that each conference champion gets in, preserving the sanctity of the regular season, as even one loss within conference play could potentially mean a team ends the year playing at the Meineke Car Care Bowl, rather than having a shot at a National Championship.  This also means that only 72 teams would remain playing at the top level of college football, meaning a bunch of people wouldn’t be very happy with me.  But really, this is my world, and this is how my world would operate. 

Step 1: The conferences

So what would the conferences look like?  Here are the conferences I came up with: 

Southwest: USC, Arizona, Arizona St., Cal, Fresno, Nevada, Stanford, UCLA, UNLV
Northwest: Air Force, Boise, BYU, Colorado, Colorado St., Oregon, Oregon St., Utah, Washington
Northern: Illinois, Iowa, Iowa St., Kansas, Kansas St., Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Wisconsin
Southern: Alabama, Auburn, Florida St., Kentucky, Louisville, Ole Miss, Miss. St., Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Mid South: Arkansas, Houston, LSU, Okla. St., Oklahoma, TCU, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech
Great Lakes: Cincy, Indiana, Michigan, Mich. St., Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio St., Purdue, West Virginia
Northeast: Boston College, UConn, Maryland, Navy, North Carolina, Penn State, Pittsburg, Rutgers, Virginia Tech
Southeast: Clemson, Florida, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Miami (FL), North Carolina St., South Carolina, South Florida, Wake Forest

You’ll notice that some AQ teams are missing.  Specifically, Washington State of the PAC-12, Baylor of the Big XII, Virginia and Duke of the ACC, and Syracuse of the Big East (moving to the ACC) are left out.  Sorry guys, your pedigree and fan bases were lacking in my estimation.  Have fun with the FCS.

Step 2: The Champions and the seeding

Next I took a look at all of the conferences and selected winners, based on the 2011 season results and my own opinions of the schools.  Here are the champions, in no particular order, along with the seeding.

#   Team         Wins    Loss     Seading      Region        Reason in
1   Stanford            11          1                2                    West            Southwest Champ
2   Oregon              11          2                4                    West            Northwest Champ
3   Wisconsin        10         3                3                    West            Northern Champ
4   Alabama           11         1                 1                    East             Southern Champ
5   LSU                     13        0                 1                    West           Mid South Champ
6   Mich. St.           10         3                4                    East            Great Lakes Champ
7   VaTech             11         2                 2                    East            Northeast Champ
8   Georgia             10         3                 3                   East             Southeast Champ  

Step 3: Let’s have a playoff!

I would incorporate six bowl games into my playoff system: The four BCS games (Rose, Fiesta, Orange, and Sugar) as well as two other bowl games (I chose the Cotton and the Citrus).  The National Championship game would rotate, but be played in NFL stadiums (perhaps using the Super Bowl model, a stadium could be “awarded” the opportunity to host a NC Game).  Can you imagine the excitement that would be present for these games?  Here’s a quick overview:

Round 1

December 16^th at 5pm:

#2 Virginia Tech vs. #3 Georgia at the Citrus Bowl, Orlando Florida

Blacksburg, Virginia is 360 miles from Athens, Georgia.  Virginia Tech suffered two losses on the season, and both were to Clemson.  Lucky for them that Clemson isn’t in their conference in my world, so they win the conference.  Georgia lost three games – all to ranked foes.  This game would be a fun one to watch.

Result: Defensive struggle, Virginia Tech 17 Georgia 13

December 16^th at 8pm:

#1 Alabama vs. #4 Michigan State at the Orange Bowl, Miami Florida

Alabama lost one game this season, to #1 LSU.  Needless to say, Alabama is a pretty good team.  Michigan State needed a hail mary pass to beat Wisconsin, who later beat them in another close game.

Result: Alabama runs away with it, Alabama 37, MSU 24

December 17^th at 5pm:

#2 Stanford vs. #3 Wisconsin at the Cotton Bowl, Dallas Texas

Wisconsin is a well balanced team who scores in bunches and defends among the best in the nation.  Stanford is an offensive juggernaut. Can Wisconsin hold them back?  Would Andrew Luck take the team on his back to lead them to the National Title Game?  We’d know, if only this game was actually being played.

Result: Wisky holds the Cards, Wisconsin 30, Stanford 24

December 17^th at 8pm:

#1 LSU vs. #4 Oregon at the Fiesta Bowl, Phoenix Arizona

The #3 offense in the country takes on the #2 defense.  Strength vs. Strength.  Speed vs. Speed.  LSU won the first matchup at the beginning of the season, but Oregon has learned a lot since then.  Can LaMichael James and the Oregon offensive line break this game open for Oregon, or will it be another LSU victory against a talented, but inferior opponent?

Result: More of the same, LSU 41, Oregon 24

Round 2

December 30^th at 8pm:

#1 LSU vs. #3 Wisconsin at the Rose Bowl, Pasadena California

I’m salivating at the thought of this game.  I think it would be an epic battle between two well-balanced teams.  Another defensive struggle though.

Result: Remember Alabama-LSU? LSU 7, Wisconsin 3

December 31^th at 5pm:

#1 Alabama vs. #2 Virginia Tech at the Sugar Bowl, New Orleans Louisiana

Virginia Tech would have two weeks to prepare for this game.  Realizing their offense probably needs a little help to win this game, I think they go Boise State style with gadget plays.  Alabama relies on Richardson and a stout defense. 

Result: Boise wins! Alabama 17, Virginia Tech 18

National Championship Game

January 7^th at 8pm:

Western Region #1 LSU vs. Eastern Region #2 Virginia Tech at Cowboy’s Stadium, Arlington Texas

The biggest story about the first ever National Championship Game is how Virginia Tech made it past Alabama and now has a chance to win their first ever National Championship.  LSU steals the show, however.

Result: LSU 37, Virginia Tech 13.

Last year on my personal blog, I seeded a 16-team playoff; I even simulated the entire thing. It was a lot of fun. I’m not going to simulate it this year, but I am going to seed it again here on LoyalCougars.

By way of explanation and to get the logistics out-of-the-way, our pretend college football playoff would be a 16-team tournament. Eleven of the 16 spots would be determined by the winners of the 11 D-I conferences; the other 5 participants would be at-large, with a maximum of three participants per conference. The 5 at-large teams and the seeding would be determined by a committee (in this case, a committee of one — me).

I am using several things to help my seeding, leaning heavily on Jeff Sagarin’s college football rankings. So, without further ado, here are you NCAA football playoff participants.

Playoff Participants

Conference Champs: Clemson (ACC); Oklahoma State (Big 12); West Virginia (Big East)*; Wisconsin (B1G); Southern Miss (C-USA); NIU (MAC); TCU (MWC); Oregon (Pac-12); LSU (SEC); Arkansas State (Sun Belt); Louisiana Tech (WAC)

* I chose West Virginia because they rank highest in Sagarin’s ranking. I have no problem with Cincinnati, but Louisville has 5 loses, so I didn’t consider them a viable alternative. In my world the BCS does not exist, so you can’t use that as a tie-breaker.

At Large: Alabama (SEC); Oklahoma (Big 12); Kansas State (Big 12); Stanford (Pac 12); Boise State (MWC)*

* The toughest decision for me was the final at-large big between Boise and Arkansas. In the end, I chose the 1-loss team. And everyone in the tournament is glad USC was not eligible. Baylor would have been in the mix too, but I already had three Big 12 teams.

Seeds

1. LSU (13-0, SEC Champ)
Why: I don’t think it’s any stretch to say the Tigers have been the nation’s best team.
Flaws: From a seeding perspective, none.

2. Oklahoma State (11-1, Big 12 Champ)
Why: In the endless debate between Bama and OkState, I will give the edge to a team that won 6 games versus the top 30 than a team that won 2.
Flaws: That pesky loss against Iowa State

3. Alabama (11-1, SEC at-large)
Why: Only one loss, played LSU very tough
Flaws: Only 3 games against top 30 competition

4. Wisconsin (11-2, B1G Champ)
Why: Won a tough conference; 3-1 vs. top 30.
Flaws: Two losses, including one to a pretty lousy Ohio State team.

5. Oklahoma (9-3, Big 12 at-large)
Why: Six wins vs. top 30
Flaws: Loss against Texas Tech; finished third in the Big 12

6. Oregon (11-2, Pac 12 Champ)
Why: Won conference. Top 30 schedule. Only two losses were to No. 1 LSU and a very good USC team.
Flaws: Two losses; only four games against top 30, and lost two.

7. Stanford (11-1, Pac 12 at-large)
Why: 3-1 vs. top 30
Flaws: Only the 36th toughest schedule.

8. Kansas State (10-2, Big 12 at-large)
Why: Five wins vs. top 30. Second place finish is nation’s top conference in 2011 (according to Sagarin).
Flaws: Some close calls against mediocre competition.

9. Clemson (10-3, ACC Champ)
Why: 3 wins vs. top 30.
Flaws: 3 losses, including @ NC State.

10. Boise State (11-1, MWC at-large)
Why: Flawless season, except for loss to TCU.
Flaws: Fairly weak schedule. Didn’t win conference.

11. TCU (10-2, MWC Champ)
Why: First team to win in Boise since I believe 1897.
Flaws: Weak schedule; inexplicable loss to SMU at home.

12. Southern Miss (11-2, C-USA Champ)
Why: Big win vs. Houston; won conference.
Flaws: Losses to lousy teams like Marshall and UAB.

13. West Virginia (9-3, Big East Champ)
Why: Won a lousy Big East; that’s all they’ve got.
Flaws: 3 losses. Weak schedule.

14. Louisiana Tech (8-4, WAC Champ)
Why: Won conference.
Flaws: No wins vs. top 30.

15. NIU (10-3, MAC Champ)
Why: Won conference
Flaws: No wins vs. top 30.

16. Arkansas State (10-2, Sunbelt Champ)
Why: Won conference.
Flaws: Weaker schedule than some FCS teams.

First Round Match-Ups

My pretend playoff’s first round would be hosted by the home teams (higher-seeded team hosts for the first two rounds). Two games would happen on Friday night, with the remainder taking place on Saturday (two noon games, two 3pm games, one 7pm game, one 9 pm game). The first round happens this Friday and Saturday (Dec. 9-10). Here are the hypothetical first-round matchups. The second round would take place the following weekend (Dec. 16-17), with the top seed playing the worst remaining seed (and so forth).

Arkansas State @ LSU
NIU @ Oklahoma State
Louisiana Tech @ Alabama
West Virginia @ Wisconsin
Southern Miss @ Oklahoma
TCU @ Oregon
Boise State @ Stanford
Clemson @ Kansas State

Don’t tell me this wouldn’t be a compelling weekend of football. Yeah, the first three games are snoozers, but those teams earned that. Every other match-up is compelling.

The Final Four would happen on Jan. 2 (sites would be any football facility, not just traditional bowl sites ), with the championship game following the next week.

I like my world a lot better than the BCS mess.

In the spring of 2010 Jake Heaps came to BYU as one of the most-heralded recruits in the school’s history, the second coming of Ty Detmer, and the next great BYU quarterback. All of this before he ever played a down. Riley Nelson was a Utah State transfer who looked like a career back-up that might bring a nice change-of-pace option to the offense. Two seasons later Nelson is the undisputed coaches’ favorite and Heaps is transferring after two lackluster seasons. The big question is did Bronco make the right call? Far be it from me to question St. Mendenhall, but let’s see if we can shed some light on the situation using statistics.

Before I launch into this, let me explain the statistics I’ll be using. Aside from standard metrics like passer rating, total offense (YPG), and offensive points per game (PPG), I’ll also be using Football Outsider’s S&P+ defensive rankings for BYU’s opponents. For a full description of S&P+ see the FO website, but basically S&P+ measures a team’s defensive effectiveness while adjusting for the quality and tempo of the opponent.

Using a team’s S&P+ rating allows us to compute expected statistics – what an “average QB” with an “average offense” should do against the defenses BYU faced this year. You can think of this as similar to the “wins above replacement” statistics used in baseball, where a player’s performance is compared with what a statistically average player would have done. For a larger sample size I’ve included the Utah State and Idaho games where Nelson and Heaps split time and I’ve given each credit for the fraction of the games they played.

The first question is just how much harder was the schedule Heaps faced than the one Nelson faced. The answer is not as much as you might think. While Heaps faced three of the top four defenses BYU played this season in Texas, Utah, and UCF, he also faced the three worst in New Mexico State, Mississippi, and Idaho. Nelson, on the other hand, faced one good defense (TCU), one porous defense (Idaho), and four average defenses. In quantitative terms, Heaps faced an average defensive S&P+ rating of 104.46 (roughly equal to the defense of West Virginia, Boston College, or Nevada) and Nelson faced an average of 98.32 (roughly equal to the defense of Houston, Syracuse, or Northern Illinois).

Now let’s take a look at Heaps. He had an average passer rating of 111.8 on the season, while an average QB against the teams he faced would have had a rating of 127.6. Heaps came in at least 10 points below average in every game except against Idaho and New Mexico State. While Heaps was in at QB, BYU’s offense averaged 317 YPG compared to an expected output of 376 YPG. The Heaps-led offense came in at least 20 yards below average against every team it faced except Utah. Finally, with Heaps at QB BYU scored less than expected in all games except against Idaho and New Mexico State. Overall, the offense scored 20.1 PPG compared to an expected 25.6 PPG against those defenses. In all three metrics Heaps preformed significantly below average with particularly poor games against Mississippi, Central Florida, and Utah State compared to expectations.

Now let’s look at Nelson. He had an average passer rating of 157.3, 25.8 points better than an average QB’s expected rating of 131.5. Nelson’s QB rating exceeded the expected value by at least 24 points in every game except against TCU. With Nelson leading the offense, the team produced an average of 502 yards and 32.7 points per game, compared to the expected production of 391 yards and 27.0 points per game.

The Nelson-led offense rated above average in YPG in every game he played. He was within 5 points of expectations against San Jose State, TCU, and Hawaii and at least 10 points better than expectations against Utah State, Oregon State, and Idaho. Nelson had a significantly better-than-average season in all the metrics, buoyed by strong games statistically against Utah State and Hawaii.

Clearly the numbers side with Nelson. I have assumed, however, that the rest of the offense was static throughout the season, which of course was not the case. The evolution of Brandon Doman’s play-calling, the emergence of Mike Alisa as a power running option, and the momentum that comes from winning games all played a very real factor in the offense’s improvement as the season progressed. No statistical measure can really ever explain everything that goes into a win or loss, but the bottom line is that using the best statistics available, the numbers show that Nelson was a better-than-average QB this season and Heaps was not.

matt@loyalcougars.com or on twitter @matt_mangum

It became official yesterday that Jake Heaps was leaving BYU. It has been interesting to follow some of the conversation on twitter regarding Heaps’ big move. I’ve recently discussed the idea of Jake Heaps transferring here on the blog. In that post I wrote that I felt it would be a mistake for Heaps to transfer. I still feel that way. I think it’s unfortunate that this has worked out this way, but at the end of the day Heaps has to do what he thinks is best for him. Having already discussed what I think a transfer means for him, I am now more interested in what his decision means for BYU football.

The answer is: not much.

Aside from the Nelson versus Heaps debate, the loss of Heaps changes very little in the short term. Most would agree that Nelson was the likely starter going into the 2012 season. He would have lasted until he got hurt or faltered. At which point Heaps may have had a chance to finish off the schedule. Many people feel that Heaps would have done better with the schedule BYU had in the second half of this season than he did with the first few games. But that belief is anchored in the quality of the opponent, not in the development curve of Heaps. Heaps has not progressed as expected. Does that mean he will not in the future? No. He just isn’t there yet. Neither of them were ready in 2010. Heaps was not ready when 2011 began. Nelson didn’t blow him out of the water, Heaps simply did not perform.Was it a scheme problem? Partially. But a better scheme doesn’t make throws more accurate, make decisions in the pocket or stay focused after taking a hit. Heaps just wasn’t ready in 2011. I don’t see the gap between them being big enough in 2011 or 2012 to make a huge difference. If the gap had been larger, there would never have been a question about who to start.

In the long term, Heaps’ transfer will have negligible impact on recruiting. For the most part BYU recruits from the same places and from the same pool of players repeatedly. Most of these players will know the story and will see it for what it is. It was a singular bad situation. This will be ancient history in 18 months or less. BYU also relies heavily on finding students who love the program and want to play specifically at BYU. Those players will not be dissuaded by Jake Heaps’ decision. Ben Olson didn’t stop Jake Heaps from coming to BYU and Jake Heaps won’t stop Tanner Mangum from coming to BYU.

I don’t wish anything bad on Jake Heaps. I don’t held this decision against  him. For me, he simply becomes a quarterback at another school. It’s not at all personal for me as a fan nor should it be. Early last year I was among those that felt his talents were being squandered under the two quarterback system. I wanted Anae to give him the keys. He got the keys and made some incremental progress. This season I was disappointed with his lack of continued growth. I was continually mocked on the Rise and Shout podcast for being a Riley Nelson hater. But the fact of the matter is that when Nelson came in, the offense immediately began to get in the endzone more frequently. When that happens, the choice is clear. The team has to do what is in their best interest to win football games and Jake Heaps has to do what he feels is in his best interest to get to the next level or achieve his other goals. That’s what happened here. That’s life.

matt@loyalcougars.com or on twitter @matt_mangum

If we had all just read Rivals.com in August, we would have known that this was coming. BYU and Tulsa are officially going to square off in the Armed Forces Bowl.

BYU and Tulsa have played 7 times. BYU holds a 6-1 advantage in those matchups. Many of you will best remember the 2007 matchup. Max Hall threw for 537 yards. It was a 55-47 shootout that ended with a gut punch in the final minute when Andrew George fumbled the football. (George totally redeemed himself later) I’m not sure I can even talk about it without getting upset. So here we are in 2011 preparing to face Tulsa in the Armed Forces Bowl in Dallas, Texas. This season Tulsa’s losses came against the following schools: Oklahoma, Oklahoma State (who should be playing for a title), Boise State and Houston. Those are all decent teams and Tulsa doesn’t have much to be ashamed of there. In 2011 BYU lost to Texas, Utah and TCU. Neither of the team’s complete schedules shed much light on the matchup. There is one common opponent, Central Florida, and both teams beat the Golden Knights by a score of 24-17.

Tulsa boasts a quarterback, G.J. Kinne who has thrown for over 2800 yards and 25 TDs. Jake Heaps and Riley Nelson’s combined statistics are over 2800 yards and 25 TDs. Kinne threw for over 300 yards in five different games. As individuals, Nelson and Heaps only topped 300 yards a couple of times. That is an eery stat to me when I think about this game in the context if the 2007 matchup. The good news is that these are almost entirely different teams and the comparison is purely historical. The bad news is that Tulsa is not UTEP. This is a serious matchup against a team that can score points and move the football. This is a good chance for BYU to measure how far they have actually come this season. It should be exciting for fans and players. There are going to be alot of decisions to be made this offseason and this game may provide a good measuring stick to make quality decisions. If it does not go well, BYU heads into an offseason of uncertainty. If it does go well, it provides some serious framework for this offseason and next year.