Category Archives: Adam

by | December 28, 2011 · 7:11 am

St. Mary’s Preview

By Adam
@ajmangum

Sports weeks like this are few and far between. BYU starts its first (of many?) seasons as a basketball team in the WCC, and what better way to start that affiliation than with a big game on the road against St. Mary’s, one of the Big Three this season in WCC basketball (BYU and Gonzaga being the others). And of course, a bowl game and a chance for 10 wins and a top 25 ranking for the football team.

But this post is really about the basketball team and a big game against St. Mary’s. Though this doesn’t compare to last season’s thrilling match-ups against San Diego State (both teams being ranked in the top 10), there is a lot of appeal for this one. Though neither the Cougars or the Gaels* are ranked, I think there’s a chance both are top 25 teams in a few weeks and both could be dangerous NCAA Tournament teams.

* Check out Wikipedia for a definition of the term Gaels. Still getting used to these mascots in the WCC. Yeah, Gonzaga is typical and boring with Bulldogs, but you have the Gaels, the Dons, the Waves, the Toreros, and the Pilots. Awesome.

I think the WCC is going to be very interesting at the top, with Gonzaga and St. Mary’s as formidable obstacles to the Cougars winning the WCC title in their first season. But who’s the best team so far? Depends on who you ask. With about a dozen games in the book for each school, the computers seem to be divided on who’s best. Pomeroy, Sagarin and RPI are not really that close to each other on these three (see below). I also included a non-scientific average of the three rankings.

Pomeroy Sagarin RPI Average
BYU 20 28 62 37
St. Mary’s 27 18 42 29
Gonzaga 29 41 11 27

What does this tell us? That until these three teams play each other, pick a computer ranking to tell which one is better and I’ll pick another. Pick a marquee win or a close loss, and I’ll pick another.

I think the order is BYU, St. Mary’s and then Gonzaga. But Mark Few is a fantastic coach, and there’s no reason the Bulldogs couldn’t become the best team in the conference when all is said and done.

Getting back to the game against St. Mary’s, the top two scorers for the Gaels are 6-6 senior forward Rob Jones (14.0) and 6-4 Australian junior point guard Matthew Dellavedova (13.9), who also leads the team in assists (6.4). The match-up between the experienced Dellavedova (in his third year running the team) and the uber-talented Matt Carlino could be the most fun part of watching this game.

Jones leads the team in rebounding (10.6), and helps anchor a very efficient offense that thrives on crisp passing and execution. They are not particularly big, and Brandon Davies should be a match-up problem. Expect to see several different Gaels guard him throughout the game, with a mix of smaller defenders who will try to annoy him when he touches the ball.

Neither of these teams play fast, and both teams do a very good job of clamping down on defense. But the Cougars have struggled defensively in the first half in each of their last two games against D-1 foes. If they do that again St. Mary’s, coming back will not be as easy.

Despite the smallish size, the Gaels are a terrific defensive rebounding team, and have guards who can rebound well. They do not turn the ball over often, so the Cougars will need to be very efficient on offense. They’re not a great 3-point shooting team (just 34.0%), but they chuck it up a lot (11th most in the country), so the perimeter defense will be key.

On a recent podcast, I predicted that BYU would lose this game. And while I think it will be close, upon closer examination, the Cougars are a tough match-up for St. Mary’s. BYU is more athletic at several key positions, and Davies is a problem the Gaels don’t have a good answer for. If the junior forward can stay out of foul trouble (a big if, I know), he should dominate.

But even if Davies struggles, Noah Hatsock and Jones cancel out, as should Carlino and Dellavedova. If Brock Zylstra and others can outplay their St. Mary’s counterparts, the Cougars should be able to steal their first conference game in the WCC.

Prediction: BYU 74, St. Mary’s 71

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by | December 22, 2011 · 1:36 pm

What Could Have Been (Another hypothetical playoff scenario)

Editor’s note: Spencer is a fan of the LoyalCougars blog and of the Rise & Shout podcast. After seeing a series of tweets by him about his version of a college football playoff, I thought it would be fun to have him detail it out here on the site, especially after I (Adam) did the same a few weeks ago. With only a few minor edits, here’s Spencer’s proposal.

By Spencer
@SpenceT25

 Conference expansion has been a mixed bag.  I thought that Nebraska to the Big 10 was a no-brainer.  Utah and Colorado to the PAC-12 weren’t as sexy, but I liked seeing the PAC get to 12.  Since then, though, the moves haven’t made a lot of sense.  I detest Texas A&M to the SEC. Mizzou too.  Syracuse and Pitt to the ACC?  Garbage.  TCU to the Big XII made sense, so I don’t know how that decision was made.  All this got me to thinking that someone ought to be in charge of D-1 College Football.  A commish, so to speak.  So, if I was hired to be the commish of the FBS, what would I do?  Where would I start?

Let’s blow it up

I’d start by blowing up the whole system.  I would make all conferences regional in nature and balanced with nine teams each.  No independents.  No teams in California in the same conference with teams in New York.  Also, no conference championship games, because really what is a championship game other than an imitation playoff?  No, in my world, we’d actually have a playoff so there would be no need for conference championship games.  Conference play would be balanced with four home and four away games.  Add four non-conference games.   Let teams play who, where, and when they may.  Basketball and the other sports can continue on in the conferences they are in now – I don’t care.

Having 8 9-team conferences segues perfectly into an 8-team playoff.  This would mean that each conference champion gets in, preserving the sanctity of the regular season, as even one loss within conference play could potentially mean a team ends the year playing at the Meineke Car Care Bowl, rather than having a shot at a National Championship.  This also means that only 72 teams would remain playing at the top level of college football, meaning a bunch of people wouldn’t be very happy with me.  But really, this is my world, and this is how my world would operate. 

Step 1: The conferences

So what would the conferences look like?  Here are the conferences I came up with: 

Southwest: USC, Arizona, Arizona St., Cal, Fresno, Nevada, Stanford, UCLA, UNLV
Northwest: Air Force, Boise, BYU, Colorado, Colorado St., Oregon, Oregon St., Utah, Washington
Northern: Illinois, Iowa, Iowa St., Kansas, Kansas St., Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Wisconsin
Southern: Alabama, Auburn, Florida St., Kentucky, Louisville, Ole Miss, Miss. St., Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Mid South: Arkansas, Houston, LSU, Okla. St., Oklahoma, TCU, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech
Great Lakes: Cincy, Indiana, Michigan, Mich. St., Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio St., Purdue, West Virginia
Northeast: Boston College, UConn, Maryland, Navy, North Carolina, Penn State, Pittsburg, Rutgers, Virginia Tech
Southeast: Clemson, Florida, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Miami (FL), North Carolina St., South Carolina, South Florida, Wake Forest

You’ll notice that some AQ teams are missing.  Specifically, Washington State of the PAC-12, Baylor of the Big XII, Virginia and Duke of the ACC, and Syracuse of the Big East (moving to the ACC) are left out.  Sorry guys, your pedigree and fan bases were lacking in my estimation.  Have fun with the FCS.

Step 2: The Champions and the seeding

Next I took a look at all of the conferences and selected winners, based on the 2011 season results and my own opinions of the schools.  Here are the champions, in no particular order, along with the seeding.

#   Team         Wins    Loss     Seading      Region        Reason in
1   Stanford            11          1                2                    West            Southwest Champ
2   Oregon              11          2                4                    West            Northwest Champ
3   Wisconsin        10         3                3                    West            Northern Champ
4   Alabama           11         1                 1                    East             Southern Champ
5   LSU                     13        0                 1                    West           Mid South Champ
6   Mich. St.           10         3                4                    East            Great Lakes Champ
7   VaTech             11         2                 2                    East            Northeast Champ
8   Georgia             10         3                 3                   East             Southeast Champ  

Step 3: Let’s have a playoff!

I would incorporate six bowl games into my playoff system: The four BCS games (Rose, Fiesta, Orange, and Sugar) as well as two other bowl games (I chose the Cotton and the Citrus).  The National Championship game would rotate, but be played in NFL stadiums (perhaps using the Super Bowl model, a stadium could be “awarded” the opportunity to host a NC Game).  Can you imagine the excitement that would be present for these games?  Here’s a quick overview:

Round 1

December 16th at 5pm:

#2 Virginia Tech vs. #3 Georgia at the Citrus Bowl, Orlando Florida

Blacksburg, Virginia is 360 miles from Athens, Georgia.  Virginia Tech suffered two losses on the season, and both were to Clemson.  Lucky for them that Clemson isn’t in their conference in my world, so they win the conference.  Georgia lost three games – all to ranked foes.  This game would be a fun one to watch.

Result: Defensive struggle, Virginia Tech 17 Georgia 13

December 16th at 8pm:

#1 Alabama vs. #4 Michigan State at the Orange Bowl, Miami Florida

Alabama lost one game this season, to #1 LSU.  Needless to say, Alabama is a pretty good team.  Michigan State needed a hail mary pass to beat Wisconsin, who later beat them in another close game.

Result: Alabama runs away with it, Alabama 37, MSU 24

December 17th at 5pm:

#2 Stanford vs. #3 Wisconsin at the Cotton Bowl, Dallas Texas

Wisconsin is a well balanced team who scores in bunches and defends among the best in the nation.  Stanford is an offensive juggernaut. Can Wisconsin hold them back?  Would Andrew Luck take the team on his back to lead them to the National Title Game?  We’d know, if only this game was actually being played.

Result: Wisky holds the Cards, Wisconsin 30, Stanford 24

December 17th at 8pm:

#1 LSU vs. #4 Oregon at the Fiesta Bowl, Phoenix Arizona

The #3 offense in the country takes on the #2 defense.  Strength vs. Strength.  Speed vs. Speed.  LSU won the first matchup at the beginning of the season, but Oregon has learned a lot since then.  Can LaMichael James and the Oregon offensive line break this game open for Oregon, or will it be another LSU victory against a talented, but inferior opponent?

Result: More of the same, LSU 41, Oregon 24

Round 2

December 30th at 8pm:

#1 LSU vs. #3 Wisconsin at the Rose Bowl, Pasadena California

I’m salivating at the thought of this game.  I think it would be an epic battle between two well-balanced teams.  Another defensive struggle though.

Result: Remember Alabama-LSU? LSU 7, Wisconsin 3

December 31th at 5pm:

#1 Alabama vs. #2 Virginia Tech at the Sugar Bowl, New Orleans Louisiana

Virginia Tech would have two weeks to prepare for this game.  Realizing their offense probably needs a little help to win this game, I think they go Boise State style with gadget plays.  Alabama relies on Richardson and a stout defense. 

Result: Boise wins! Alabama 17, Virginia Tech 18

National Championship Game

January 7th at 8pm:

Western Region #1 LSU vs. Eastern Region #2 Virginia Tech at Cowboy’s Stadium, Arlington Texas

The biggest story about the first ever National Championship Game is how Virginia Tech made it past Alabama and now has a chance to win their first ever National Championship.  LSU steals the show, however.

Result: LSU 37, Virginia Tech 13.

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by | December 8, 2011 · 7:39 am

The 2011 NCAA D-I College Football Playoff

By Adam
@ajmangum

Last year on my personal blog, I seeded a 16-team playoff; I even simulated the entire thing. It was a lot of fun. I’m not going to simulate it this year, but I am going to seed it again here on LoyalCougars.

By way of explanation and to get the logistics out-of-the-way, our pretend college football playoff would be a 16-team tournament. Eleven of the 16 spots would be determined by the winners of the 11 D-I conferences; the other 5 participants would be at-large, with a maximum of three participants per conference. The 5 at-large teams and the seeding would be determined by a committee (in this case, a committee of one — me).

I am using several things to help my seeding, leaning heavily on Jeff Sagarin’s college football rankings. So, without further ado, here are you NCAA football playoff participants.

Playoff Participants

Conference Champs: Clemson (ACC); Oklahoma State (Big 12); West Virginia (Big East)*; Wisconsin (B1G); Southern Miss (C-USA); NIU (MAC); TCU (MWC); Oregon (Pac-12); LSU (SEC); Arkansas State (Sun Belt); Louisiana Tech (WAC)

* I chose West Virginia because they rank highest in Sagarin’s ranking. I have no problem with Cincinnati, but Louisville has 5 loses, so I didn’t consider them a viable alternative. In my world the BCS does not exist, so you can’t use that as a tie-breaker.

At Large: Alabama (SEC); Oklahoma (Big 12); Kansas State (Big 12); Stanford (Pac 12); Boise State (MWC)*

* The toughest decision for me was the final at-large big between Boise and Arkansas. In the end, I chose the 1-loss team. And everyone in the tournament is glad USC was not eligible. Baylor would have been in the mix too, but I already had three Big 12 teams.

Seeds

1. LSU (13-0, SEC Champ)
Why: I don’t think it’s any stretch to say the Tigers have been the nation’s best team.
Flaws: From a seeding perspective, none.

2. Oklahoma State (11-1, Big 12 Champ)
Why: In the endless debate between Bama and OkState, I will give the edge to a team that won 6 games versus the top 30 than a team that won 2.
Flaws: That pesky loss against Iowa State

3. Alabama (11-1, SEC at-large)
Why: Only one loss, played LSU very tough
Flaws: Only 3 games against top 30 competition

4. Wisconsin (11-2, B1G Champ)
Why: Won a tough conference; 3-1 vs. top 30.
Flaws: Two losses, including one to a pretty lousy Ohio State team.

5. Oklahoma (9-3, Big 12 at-large)
Why: Six wins vs. top 30
Flaws: Loss against Texas Tech; finished third in the Big 12

6. Oregon (11-2, Pac 12 Champ)
Why: Won conference. Top 30 schedule. Only two losses were to No. 1 LSU and a very good USC team.
Flaws: Two losses; only four games against top 30, and lost two.

7. Stanford (11-1, Pac 12 at-large)
Why: 3-1 vs. top 30
Flaws: Only the 36th toughest schedule.

8. Kansas State (10-2, Big 12 at-large)
Why: Five wins vs. top 30. Second place finish is nation’s top conference in 2011 (according to Sagarin).
Flaws: Some close calls against mediocre competition.

9. Clemson (10-3, ACC Champ)
Why: 3 wins vs. top 30.
Flaws: 3 losses, including @ NC State.

10. Boise State (11-1, MWC at-large)
Why: Flawless season, except for loss to TCU.
Flaws: Fairly weak schedule. Didn’t win conference.

11. TCU (10-2, MWC Champ)
Why: First team to win in Boise since I believe 1897.
Flaws: Weak schedule; inexplicable loss to SMU at home.

12. Southern Miss (11-2, C-USA Champ)
Why: Big win vs. Houston; won conference.
Flaws: Losses to lousy teams like Marshall and UAB.

13. West Virginia (9-3, Big East Champ)
Why: Won a lousy Big East; that’s all they’ve got.
Flaws: 3 losses. Weak schedule.

14. Louisiana Tech (8-4, WAC Champ)
Why: Won conference.
Flaws: No wins vs. top 30.

15. NIU (10-3, MAC Champ)
Why: Won conference
Flaws: No wins vs. top 30.

16. Arkansas State (10-2, Sunbelt Champ)
Why: Won conference.
Flaws: Weaker schedule than some FCS teams.

First Round Match-Ups

My pretend playoff’s first round would be hosted by the home teams (higher-seeded team hosts for the first two rounds). Two games would happen on Friday night, with the remainder taking place on Saturday (two noon games, two 3pm games, one 7pm game, one 9 pm game). The first round happens this Friday and Saturday (Dec. 9-10). Here are the hypothetical first-round matchups. The second round would take place the following weekend (Dec. 16-17), with the top seed playing the worst remaining seed (and so forth).

Arkansas State @ LSU
NIU @ Oklahoma State
Louisiana Tech @ Alabama
West Virginia @ Wisconsin
Southern Miss @ Oklahoma
TCU @ Oregon
Boise State @ Stanford
Clemson @ Kansas State

Don’t tell me this wouldn’t be a compelling weekend of football. Yeah, the first three games are snoozers, but those teams earned that. Every other match-up is compelling.

The Final Four would happen on Jan. 2 (sites would be any football facility, not just traditional bowl sites ), with the championship game following the next week.

I like my world a lot better than the BCS mess.

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by | December 2, 2011 · 12:55 pm

Honolulu Horror

I have made no bones on our podcast that I don’t like playing in Hawaii. Heck, historically the biggest benefit of playing on the islands is a chance to get an extra game; BYU didn’t do that this year because a November game against Southwestern Tech did not seem appealing.

I don’t like playing in Honolulu because it has been the scene of two of the worst games in BYU history. Of course, this is emotional reaction to the place, not a completely rational one. Since 1978, BYU has played at Hawaii 15 times, and the Cougars are 11-4 over that time period, including eight straight victories there from 1978 to 1988.

But the two losses I referenced were brutal and drastically changed the perceptions of the those two Cougar teams.

Dec. 1, 1990: UH 59, BYU 28
I very clearly remember Ty Detmer wearing a Hawaiian shirt as he graciously accepted the 1990 Heisman Trophy in absentia. He would go on later that day to have one of his worst days as a collegiate QB — 22 for 45 with 4 interceptions. He was sacked three times and was under constant pressure. Texas A&M would follow the same blueprint to take him down in the Holiday Bowl several weeks later.

In a season that started with a stunning wins over UTEP and top-ranked Miami, in a season in which BYU was 10-1 before leaving for Honolulu, in a season in which Detmer broke through and won BYU’s only Heisman Trophy, it all turned sour in Honolulu. With a 10-3 finish and No. 22 ranking, the potentially otherwordly season became just an historic one (and only because of the Heisman).

Dec. 8, 2001: UH 72, BYU 45
The Cougars were an undefeated 12-0 headed into this trip to Honolulu. The Brandon Doman-led offense was humming and had put up some incredible numbers in Gary Crowton’s first season as the LaVell Edwards’ replacement.

The defense had been lackluster all season, bailed out by Doman and all-world running back Luke Staley. Many fans will remember that Staley did not start and that Doman broke his ribs in the first quarter.

But even with no Staley and less than a half of Doman, the offense rolled up 612 yards and Charlie Peterson was good in relief of Doman (though the Cougars did turn the ball over a whopping seven times). The Warriors gained 646 yards on offense and had 300+ yards on kick and punt returns. The BYU defense and special teams imploded against a Hawaii team that didn’t even make a bowl game. (Doman recently chatted with Jeff Call of the Deseret News about this horrendous experience.)

Similar to the 1990 season, the Hawaii loss led to an embarrassing dismantling in a bowl game, a 28-10 loss to Louisville in the Liberty Bowl.

 *   *   *   *

 2011 is not 1990 or 2001. First of all, unlike those two teams, this year’s version of the Cougars does not have national prominence riding on this game. And the Warriors are a pretty lousy team.

Still, I don’t like playing in Honolulu. The memories of 1990 and 2001 still haunt me, and though a loss to Hawaii tomorrow wouldn’t be the end of the world, it certainly would make a mediocre but palatable season turn into a pretty crummy one.

Aloha.

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by | November 8, 2011 · 12:19 pm

5 Questions: Should BYU join the Big East in football

There have been reports that the Big East is courting BYU. Bronco even mentioned it in his press conference, which seemed really strange after the BYU coaches and administration’s cone of silence in regard to conference realignment talk during discussions with the Big 12. Why did Bronco break this code? Was he going off script? Was he trying to signal to the press and fans that something is imminent? Why? Why?

Before I completely lose it, here are five questions about whether it would be a good idea to join the Big East in football. I am assuming (and this may be completely wrong) that BYU would, like has been reported with Air Force and Boise State, only join for football and not for the other sports.

 1. What does joining the Big East actually do for BYU?
The biggest advantage is easier access to the BCS than independence, membership in the MWC, or membership in a better football league (like the Big 12). The Big East is pretty wide open in football, with the program to watch being Boise State the minute they enter the door. Let me put it this way: I can envision a much better shot at multiple BCS appearances as a member of the Big East than I can if the Cougars joined the Big 12.

The big question about BCS access is whether the Big East will keep its BCS AQ status after 2013 (discussed more below).

2. Would the money be better?
Depends. Some reports show membership in the Big East as being less profitable than independence. I think eventually, yes, especially if conference realignment makes independent scheduling of late-season match-ups harder. But that’s a tough call, especially since we don’t know for sure exactly what BYU is grossing right now.

3. Would TV access be better or worse than independence?
Again, it depends. As we’ve all learned, it’s all about Tier 3 rights, baby! If we’re playing Rutgers in New Jersey, will BYU fans outside of Utah get to see the game?

Using the Big East home games for this weekend as an example, Pittsburgh on the road at Louisville is on several regional networks and online at ESPN3. South Florida at Syracuse is a Friday night game on ESPN2.

I can say this for certain: there would be less nationally televised games on the big ESPN networks (assuming BYU can’t keep its contract with BYU), but access would definitely be better than the MWC. But many fans outside of Utah might still have to jump through hoops to catch all the games.

4. Is the Big East stable?
No, but neither is the Big 12. I think the SEC, Pac12 and Big Ten have solidified their places in the college football landscape, and everyone else is scrambling not to be left out. I don’t believe the Big East is in as bad a mess as some say. The same doomsday scenarios were played when Virginia Tech, Boston College and Miami left the Big East after the 2004 season, and while it made the Big East a mediocre football conference, they kept their card to the big kids’ table.

But can the Big East even keep it’s BCS status after a new deal is negotiated (starting in 2014)? Excellent question, but I think it can and will if BSU officially joins and they can add a handle of decent football programs. But that’s pure conjecture on my part.

5. If BYU doesn’t join a conference soon, are they going to be left out of the Super Conference realignment? Will they become irrelevant?
This is the pivotal question. Are Super Conferences imminent? I don’t think so, but many smart observers do, with a Super Conference playoff the gold at the end of that rainbow. And if you’re not in, you might as well be played FCS.

I know being left out of a Super Conference landscape scares a lot of BYU fans, and I’m sure the administration is keeping that in mind as well. If the entire system changes to the point that independence is no longer viable, the freedom of football independence could become a shackle.

Conclusion: Without, admittedly, knowing all the facts, I think BYU should hold for now. I don’t think the Big East will become any less desperate in next 12-18 months, so there’s no need to jump yet. And if Super Conferences are truly inevitable, there’s no guarantee that the Big East will even be invited to that party.

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by | October 31, 2011 · 2:03 pm

Team Jake vs. Team Riley

By Adam
adam@loyalcougars.com
@ajmangum

On our last podcast, Matt and I discussed why following the BYU conversation on Twitter was often akin to CougarBoard, and how Matt has almost abandoned Twitter because of the ‘woe-is-me’ BYU fan attitude surrounding conference expansion.

I’m reaching that point on the debate between Riley Nelson and Jake Heaps. In a game in which a couple of special teams miscues led to an almost insurmountable hole, I think fans lost sight of the fact that there was a lot of improvement demonstrated by the Cougars. Brandon Doman called his best game, and the defense continues to be solid (if unspectacular). Honestly, I feel like the two sides are like squabaling teens arguing between Team Edward and Team Jacob.

So let’s step back and talk facts. Here are some of most pertinent facts about for each QB. As always, most of these stats are courtesy of the supremely excellent site CougarStats.com.

Jake Heaps Facts

  1. He has been historically bad. Ok, you may say that’s an opinion, not fact. But it’s fact. Do you know where Heaps’ 5.28 YPA ranks among the 50 BYU QB seasons in which a QB has thrown for more than 1000 yards? No. 50. He also has 6 INTs and 3 TDs. His 2011 season has been much closer to Matt Berry than it’s been to Ty Detmer.
  2. In his five starts, he faced three of the best four defenses (Texas, Utah and UCF) that BYU has faced this season (according to FootballOutsiders.com).
  3. Heaps’ INT % of 3.1% is good for 19th on the same list mentioned above. When you factor in fumbles, he is above-average in BYU history at protecting the football. His 2010 season was even better than that (2.3%).

Riley Nelson Facts

  1. His 59% completion percentage is good for 31st on the above-mentioned list. He is below-average in accuracy compared to other recent BYU QBs.
  2. His 368 yards rushing is good for 6th all-time for BYU QBs, and he has a lot of season left to go. His 5.5 YPC is more than any QB in BYU history with more than 200 yards rushing.
  3. His 8.88 YPA is ranked 11th all-time at BYU (ahead of Doman’s 2001 season, by the way).
  4. His INT % of 4.2% is 31st on the list. Factor in the fumbles, and he’s well below average at protecting the ball.

I’m sure some of you will accuse me of cherry-picking stats (maybe true) and of being a Heaps-hater (not true). Read what I said about Heaps’ 2010 season; I really thought he was going to get better, that 2011 was going to be a step toward becoming a QB who was mentioned in the same breath as some of the other Cougar greats.

But that did not happen.

 And please stop with the “Well, we’ve got to play Heaps because we need to develop him for next season.” First off, since when can a QB only develop by playing? There are a lot of examples of QBs who sat for a couple of seasons, learned the offense, matured, and became excellent QBs. Playing can work, but it’s not the only way.

I’m not against the debate. I don’t think Nelson is the second coming of Steve Young. But let’s use facts and not act like some teens arguing between vampires and werewolves.

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by | October 27, 2011 · 3:38 pm

The question: Can Riley Nelson beat the TCU defense?

As the Cougars head into the biggest remaining game on the schedule, and play once again in the house that Jerry built, I believe there is only one pertinent question: Can Riley Nelson keep the offense moving against a historically awesome TCU defense.

By most measures TCU is not as good defensively as they have been over the past couple of seasons. From 2008-2010, TCU only allowed more than 30 points in two games: a 35-10 loss to Oklahoma in 2008, and a 40-35 victory over SDSU last season. This has been one of the best defenses in the country, and has usually been impressive even when losing (like the 2010 Fiesta Bowl against Boise State).

But this is not that team. They have given up 50 points to Baylor and 40 points to SMU.* I know it’s all projecting, but I don’t think those 2009 and 2010 teams give up a combined 90 points to the Bears and Mustangs.

* SMU and Baylor don’t have a lot of cache, but those loses aren’t as bad as you might think. According to advanced metrics, both teams are top-30. But the point still stands: the Horned Frogs defense is good, but not as good.

Nelson hasn’t been tested by an above-average defense. According to Football Outsiders,  the best defense Nelson has played against this season is Oregon State, which is ranked No. 50 on in their defensive rankings. Utah State (76) and San Jose State (80) are not good defenses, and Idaho State is a bel0w-average FCS team.

In the pro-Jake Heaps crowd, their best argument is this: Nelson has run up yards against lousy defenses, while Heaps put up pedestrian numbers against very good defenses, like UT (22), Utah (30) and UCF (38).

It’s a legitimate point. Nelson’s speed and mobility has caused fits for opposing defenses, but the speed of TCU will be like nothing the Cougars have seen since Nelson took over the offense.  

I don’t think Nelson needs a lot of rushing yards for BYU to win; Gary Patterson and his staff will design a defense to keep him contained. Nelson needs to be able to scramble to pass, and be accurate on his intermediate routes, and hit a pass or two beyond 20 yards to keep the safeties from cheating on his shorter throws or staying too close on run support.

If the Cougars can get close to 450 yards total offense, I think they win, because I don’t believe the defense will put up another clunker like they did against Utah. But if Nelson sputters, if he turns the ball over 2-3 times, the hill will be too high.

But I think Nelson keeps it together, makes plays, and gets the Cougars offense moving. At least enough to bring home a victory.

Prediction: 33-30 (OT), BYU

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by | October 14, 2011 · 9:51 am

5 Questions: BYU @ Oregon State

By Adam
adam@loyalcougars.com
@ajmangum

 1. How tough an environment is Reser Stadium in Corvallis? Will the crowd be a major factor?
Reser stadium seats less than 46,000, but if you talk with Oregon fans, it feels like a lot more during the Civil War games in Corvallis against the Ducks. According the Bleacher Reports top 50 college football stadiums, Reser did not make the cut (LaVell Edwards Stadium was No. 39). Of course, War Memorial Stadium at Wyoming was ranked, so not sure you can trust that. Remind me to tell you the story sometime of when I was almost killed there.

Imagine if BYU was 1-4 and had lost to an FCS opponent at home to start the season. How excited would the Cougar crowd be about a borderline top-50 team coming into town? Probably not very. I think Beaver fans are beaten down, and one win against a lousy Arizona team probably hasn’t brought them back to full power. The Cougars have a great opportunity to take the crowd out of the game early.

2. Do the Oregon State offensive strengths match-up too well with the BYU weaknesses?
I’ve read several previews that wonder if the Oregon State passing game (ranked 30th in the country in yards per game) is a bad match-up for a BYU secondary that has been vulnerable .

It’s a good question, but I don’t think the Beaver passing game is that good. Led by freshman Sean Mannion, they have only one 300+ yard game this season, and that was in a losing effort against Arizona State when they chucked the ball 66 times. I think if OSU throws the ball 60+ times against BYU, that would be a terrific sign.

Yes the passing game is their strength, and expect a decent day for them in that department, but call me skeptical of a unit that put up 230 yards against Sacramento State and is averaging just 6.1 YPA.

3. Does Riley Nelson continue his successful run? Or does Jake Heaps re-emerge?
Don and I talked a lot about this on the podcast; Nelson became the QB at the optimal time during a weak portion of the BYU schedule. Heaps played against likely 3 of the best 4 opponents the Cougars will face all year, and now Nelson gets his shot in cupcake alley.

And while that context is important, the stats so overwhelmingly favor Nelson that I’m not sure why anyone would be asking for Heaps’ return. Heaps has been almost as turnover prone, less accurate, and less efficient. With usually tons of time in the pocket, he can’t make the right decision.

Of course, if Nelson puts up a 5-for-12, 67 yards passing, 2 turnover first half, I think Bronco Mendenhall and Brandon Doman will be tempted to turn back to the former prospect. Personally, I would give James Lark a shot, but I believe if Nelson stumbles, Heaps will get the opportunity to prove his detractors wrong.

4. Is Michael Alisa for real?
Alisa was an afterthought coming out of Timpview High in 2008, a two-star filler, a special teams player.

That perception, at least for me, lasted until last week. With seasoned RBs in Josh Quezada, JJ DiLuigi and Bryan Kariya, who cared about Alisa? He entered the San Jose State game with 3 carries for 2 yards.

Now he is the RB with the highest YPC number, and he was great against the Spartans. He hit the holes violently, something that Cougar backs have failed to do this season, with the possible exception of Kariya in the 4th quarter against Utah State.

I have no idea if Alisa is for real or not, or if we just saw his career game. But I hope he gets 12-15 touches against the Beavers so we can find out if he’s really the remedy to BYU’s anemic rushing attack.

5. Can the Cougars put together 4 solid quarters? Please?
BYU has been disjointed this season, especially on offense. And the defense has also had major lapses that have cost the Cougars. Can they put together a complete game and easily win a game they should, on paper, easily win?

Unfortunately I don’t think the Cougars destroy the Beavers like they’re capable of doing. Nelson will lead the offense to 400+ yards again, but will make some major mistakes. And the defense will be solid, but give up a couple big plays. Still, the Cougars will be one win away from bowl eligibility come Saturday night.

Prediction: 24-20, BYU.

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by | October 10, 2011 · 8:36 pm

The key word: Efficiency

By Adam
adam@loyalcougars.com
@ajmangum

There were a lot of calls for Riley Nelson’s well coifed head on Saturday by fans on Twitter after his third turnover. He made a couple of poor decisions, and the one pass when he was about to get sacked looked like a Pee Wee league punt.

Turnovers are bad, but the Cougars have suffered through something much worse this season: an inefficient offense. When Jake Heaps was running the show, the Cougars turned the ball over a lot and also couldn’t sustain drives or score points.

Nelson, in 5+ quarters, has run an efficient offense. In an efficient passing offense, 1-2 turnovers is likely part of the equation on most days. Many very successful BYU QBs have averaged more than one INT per game. It’s just part of the program.

And the Cougars have been a ton more efficient with Riley at the helm. Though the offense stalled somewhat in the second half, the end results were a season-high 29 points and the second-highest total yards (behind last week’s Nelson-driven performance against Utah State).

Don’t misunderstand this: Nelson made a lot of mistakes, and if BYU is going to beat the remaining good teams on their schedule (TCU, maybe Hawaii), Nelson will need to play better.

The biggest caveat with Nelson’s immergence is this: He may not actually play against a top-30 team, and this could elevate his statistics and give the fans and (more importantly) the coaches a false sense of security regarding his abilities and potential going forward. Maybe like Heaps’ performance did in the second half of the 2010 season.

The stats are overwhelming in Nelson’s favor, even when factoring in the turnovers. Nelson is averaging almost 9 yards per pass attempt, while Heaps is averaging an attrocious 5.2 YPA. And as much as everyone was up in arms over Nelson’s turnovers, Heaps has been turnover prone as well. And with an inefficient offense, turnovers lead to short fields for the opposition. Two of the Nelson turnovers were inside the Spartan 5-yard line, which is bad, but not as bad as turning the ball over in your own territory.

I am not defending the poor plays Nelson made, and I’m not proclaiming him the second coming of Brandon Doman (though the comparison is interesting). But if you’re asking for Heaps to replace Nelson, the numbers don’t support that at all.

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by | October 6, 2011 · 3:52 pm

5 Questions: SJSU @ BYU

By Adam
adam@loyalcougars.com
@ajmangum

Did you know that San Jose State leads the all-time series 9-5? As usual, that nugget is courtesy of CougarStats.com. Of course, they’ve only met once since I was born, and that was a 1998 shoot-out in Provo. A ton has changed since then for both programs. So, as usual, I’ve got some questions and answers about the big game.

1. Just how badly will BYU beat SJSU?
I know that a lukewarm 3-2 start and Big 12 expansion talk have Cougar fans at DEFCON 1, but this team isn’t horrible, and SJSU is. I know the sportswriter cliché is “Look out, the Spartans have won two in a row!”, but they beat two other bad teams in Colorado State and New Mexico State.

Football Outsiders has SJSU ranked at No. 87 and BYU at No. 55. That’s like the difference between LSU and TCU, so let’s not oversell the Spartans. Anything can happen, but the Cougars are likely to cruise in this one by several TDs.

2. Who will start at QB? Will both Heaps and Nelson play?
The BYU coaching staff is silent on this issue, but I would be shocked if Riley Nelson doesn’t get the start and most (if not all) of the snaps. He proved it on the field. And as Greg Wrubell said on this week’s podcast, this is a results business, and Heaps has stunk in 2011.

3. Is the BYU defense good or not?
This unit can look very good and then very bad. After giving up a ton of yards to Utah State in the first three quarters, the Cougar D slammed the door on the last two Aggie drives. They have also looked dominant in stretches against Ole Miss, Texas and UCF, while looking terrible against Utah and in stretches against Texas and UCF.

I think the answer is that the BYU defense is good, but has some weaknesses against mobile QBs and big RBs. They will look really good against the Spartans.

4. Will the BYU rushing game find it’s groove against the Spartans?
Coming into the season, I thought the BYU rushing game would be very good, better than last year. OC Brandon Doman talked about a play-action based passing scheme, and I believed that three experienced and talented RBs would help open up the BYU pass offense.

SJSU is 95th in the country against the run, and their defense is 87th overall. This could be what the doctor ordered to get JJ DiLuigi, Quezada and Kariya going. But let’s not sugar coat this; the team is only averaging 3.1 YPC, and Quezada is under 3.

5. Will anyone still be awake when this game ends?
As someone who lives in the Central Time Zone, I’m not thrilled about the 9:15 CDT start. If it’s 41-10 in the middle of the third quarter, I make no promises about staying awake. I can guarantee my wife will be out before halftime.

And I think this one is a snoozer. And boy does my blood pressure need a snoozer in BYU’s favor.

Prediction: 41-17, BYU.

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